Forecasts to 2015
We produce future forecasts within the limits of available data. We can obtain data for our forecasting variables through 2010, thus we can produce ‘future’ forecasts which being in 2011 (although this analysis is conducted in mid-2012). However, we have trained our model to forecast over 5-year periods. Thus we present our future forecasts for the period 2011-2015.
Tables 1 and 2 list the fifteen countries most at risk of genocide and politicide onset in the period 2011 - 2015. Table 1 shows these countries with some of the most powerful predictors in our model. Table 2 shows the same list with some of the most time-variant predictors.