The project has the overall purpose of enhancing capacity for forecasting mass atrocities and genocide globally and in the Asia-Pacific region. The specific aims are to:
The aim is to provide tools for analysts and policy makers. The project builds on the current academic literature, and employs econometric and machine-learning based forecasting techniques, which can greatly enhance analytical capacity in combination with standard qualitative and quantitative social science methods. The forecasts are intended to be used in combination with other quantitative and qualitative analysis and expert knowledge.
Our work was featured in the New York Times in a news analysis article about the use of quantitative data by social scientists to predict political violence. The article, “Spreadsheets and Global Mayhem,” highlights the work of the Atrocity Forecasting Project , including some of our key predictor variables and our use of machine-learning based approaches.
The work of the Atrocity Forecasting Project has been featured in the magazine Pacific Standard, which focuses on the application of cutting-edge science to major societal problems. Ben Goldsmith was interviewed by the magazine and discussed our forecasting model, which lists the Central African Republic as the country most at risk of genocide or politicide for the period 2011-2015. The United Nations and others have recently issued dire warnings about the risk of genocidal violence in CAR.
Ben Goldsmith spoke at the Working Group on Forecasting International Events, 25 March 2014, Toronto. This group was sponsored by the Scientific Study of International Processes Section of the International Studies Association (ISA), and occurred in conjunction with the 2014 ISA annual conference in Toronto. Goldsmith’s presentation, “Forecasting Genocide and Politicide over Five-year Periods: Towards a better model,” focused on methods for evaluating forecasting accuracy for the Atrocity Forecasting Project’s 5-year forecast for the period 2011-2015.
© 2002-14 The University of Sydney. Last updated: 12 August 2013
ABN: 15 211 513 464. CRICOS number: 00026A. Phone: +61 2 9351 2222.
Authorised by: Dr Ben Goldsmith.