The project has the overall purpose of enhancing capacity for forecasting mass atrocities and genocide globally and in the Asia-Pacific region. The specific aims are to:
The aim is to provide tools for analysts and policy makers. The project builds on the current academic literature, and employs econometric and machine-learning based forecasting techniques, which can greatly enhance analytical capacity in combination with standard qualitative and quantitative social science methods. The forecasts are intended to be used in combination with other quantitative and qualitative analysis and expert knowledge.
Our article “Forecasting the Onset of Genocide and Politicide: Annual Out-of-Sample Forecasts on a Global Dataset, 1988-2003” has been accepted by the Journal of Peace Research, with expected publication in July 2013 [http://jpr.sagepub.com/].
Benjamin Goldsmith has received a Medium Grant from the Electoral Integrity Project to investigate “Authoritarian Elections, Electoral Integrity, and Political Violence”
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Authorised by: Dr Ben Goldsmith.