Model Predictors

This graphic shows the ranking of some key predictor variables for each year, 1987-2002. These relate to predictions for the following year (i.e., values for 2002 are used to create 2003 predictions). The list of countries at the left is ranked according to the probability of genocide / politicide onset in the next year. The graphic is interactive: years and countries can be selected to see specific rankings for the predictors.

Note: The graphics on this page require JavaScript to be enabled on your browser. They also are not compatible with Microsoft Internet Explorer 8 or earlier

Note: This graphic is not based on our most recent forecasting results