Model Slideshows

This graphic demonstrates our annual forecasts, 1988-2003. Years prior to the moving vertical line represent the sample used to set model parameters. The out-of-sample year of forecasting is marked by the line. Our top-ten list of at-risk countries appears at the right for each year. Onsets of genocide / politicide are found above the dashed horizontal line.

Note: This graphic is not based on our most recent forecasting results