Atrocity Forecasting Project

The project has the overall purpose of enhancing capacity for forecasting mass atrocities and genocide globally and in the Asia-Pacific region. The specific aims are to:

  1. develop sophisticated, appropriate, and cutting-edge quantitative forecasting models,
  2. improve understanding of the causes of political instability and conflict which greatly increase the probability of mass atrocities or genocide,
  3. improve understanding of the crucial causal processes which lead from instability to mass atrocities or genocide, and
  4. produce forecasting software and reports which are useful as early warning tools for protection of vulnerable populations.

The aim is to provide tools for analysts and policy makers. The project builds on the current academic literature, and employs econometric and machine-learning based forecasting techniques, which can greatly enhance analytical capacity in combination with standard qualitative and quantitative social science methods. The forecasts are intended to be used in combination with other quantitative and qualitative analysis and expert knowledge.

Funding for this project from AusAID’s Responsibility to Protect Fund, via the Asia-Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, is gratefully acknowledged. However, the projects’ Chief Investigators, based at the University of Sydney and the University of New South Wales, take full responsibility for the analysis and forecasts presented here and in the project's reports and publications.