Dr Jean Jonathan Bogais

Adjunct Associate Professor

A22 - Old Teachers' College
The University of Sydney

Telephone 9114 0906
Website Personal website
@JonathanBogais

Biographical details

Dr Bogais is a psycho-sociologist (political sociology and social/intercultural psychology) a specialist in foreign affairs and a strategic advisor with over three decades of academic and practical experience working in complex environments. His expertise is in ethics, violence, conflict, risk evaluation, mediation, negotiation, and program experimentation. His area of expertise is Southeast Asia and the Western Pacific, with a special focus on Myanmar, Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and the South China Sea. He has served as a senior analyst, strategic advisor, mediator, negotiator and has had ongoing involvement in international missions and peacebuilding and conflict resolution initiatives. He continues to be involved in these areas. Applying complex systems to analysis and strategy, he has a considerable experience in building networks that can identify and manage uncertainty/instability to introduce change over time. His experience includes significant crisis negotiation/resolution involving mixed ethnicities and religions.

Professor Bogais is attached to the Department of Sociology and Social Policy, School of Social and Political Sciences at the University of Sydney, Australia. He is a specialist lecturer and an accredited research supervisor (PhDs, Masters). He holds Associate positions with: Center for International Security Studies(CISS), Sydney Asia Pacific Migration Centre (SAPMiC) and Sydney Southeast Asia Center (SSSEAC). He was awarded a Master in Social & Intercultural Psychology in 1978 and a PhD in Sociology in 1984, both from Paris-Sorbonne.

Research interests

Professor Bogais’ research lies in the “dynamic modelling of conflict projection and avoidance”. It explores the indivisibility of the InfoTechno and the Socio/Ethics at a Quantum Age. The research focuses on the Nexus at the intersection of Energy/Cyber/Privacy/Power/BigData/Security and the place of humanity into the loop (the Nexus). It leads to the modelling of alternative futures based on entangled network constructs. The modelling reflects sums of assumptions…the instrument it becomes is capable of falsifying assumptions and testing for new ones and new nulls. The modelling is abstractive allowing for scenario-building and prediction-testing. It is dynamic and the backbone to the creation of real-time narratives. The modelling (with narrative) is designed to explore critical junctures…and prepare for knowledge transfer.

Associations

Professor Bogais’ current appointments include:

  • Senior Research Fellow: German-Southeast Asian Center of Excellence for Good Governance and Policy (CPG). CPG is a common institute of Thammasat University Bangkok and Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Westfälische Wilhelms University-Münster, and Passau University in Germany. It is funded by the German Federal Foreign Office and supported by the German Academic Exchange Service (DAAD). The CPG is located within the Faculty of Law at Thammasat University, Bangkok.
  • Senior Associate and Expert Adviser (non-resident): Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, U.S. Attached to the Southeast Asia Program
  • Expert (Non-resident): Middle East Institute - Middle East/Asia Project, Washington DC, U.S.

Past appointments

  • Visiting Fellow: Institut de Hautes Études Internationales et du Dévelopment - Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva
  • Visiting Fellow: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) - WZB Berlin Social Science Center, Berlin

RECENT PRESENTATIONS (2014/17)

June 2017

  • Invited speaker at “Optimising Hybrid IT (and Other Data Center Challenges)”, an international conference hosted by DCD Australia and held at the Sydney International Convention Centre. Professor Bogais discusses Socio/Ethics, Cyber and vulnerability to terrorism.
  • Invited participation and Chair: International Seminar…"A Hotbed for Crises: Increasing Stakes and Tension in the South China Sea". Organised and hosted by the Southeast Asian Centre for Excellence in Governance and Policy (CPG) at Thammasat University, Bangkok. Senior military officers, diplomats, Thai officials, ASEAN officials, academics, (I)NGO representatives from all parties involved in the "crisis" met for one day to discuss the situation. A robust debate, but also an eye opener……
  • Invited presentation and workshop to introduce: "Modelling Conflict Projection and Avoidance". Organised and hosted by the Southeast Asian Centre for Excellence in Governance and Policy (CPG) at Thammasat University, Bangkok. In this one-day event, Dr Bogais introduced the cutting-edge research and experimentation he and his associate, Dr Simon Reay Atkinson are currently undertaking in the area of conflict projection and avoidance to ascertain the potential for violence to be introduced in non-violent spaces, and new thinking in conflict resolution and anti-terrorism.

May 2017

  • Invited participation at the NTS-Asia Consortium Conference on "Climate Change and Sustainable Development Goals in the Asia Pacific"
    Session: Climate Change and SDGs on Partnership, Peace and Conflict
    Organised by NTS-Asia Consortium and S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore

January 2017

  • Invited presentation: University of the Philippines, Manila, Philippines. “Negotiating status-quo to de-escalate conflict.. When the least worse option is the best option.” - Manila


September 2016

  • Invited presentation: Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea. "Introducing violence in non-violent spaces to impose hegemony: A South China Sea crisis viewed through complex systems analysis". Organised by the Department of cultural anthropology – Seoul
  • Report presentation and roundtable: UNITAR, Geneva. "Introducing evaluation of three case studies on knowledge translation methodologies" - Geneva
  • Invited presentation: German-Southeast Asian Centre of Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG), Faculty of Law, Thammasat University, Bangkok,Bangkok
  • Special lecture 1. "The introduction of Violence in Non-Violent Spaces for the Making of a Dominant Identity: Analysing Perceptions of Conflict in the Asia Pacific Region" (Focus on the South China Sea crisis.)
  • Special lecture 2. Political Transformation in Southeast Asia - Recent Developments, Current Issues and Future Prospects: "Myanmar's Difficult Road to Democracy: An examination Through Complex Systems Analysis"


July 2016

  • Speaker and panel member. Roundtable: Sydney Southeast Asia Centre, University of Sydney. “Democratic update: Cambodia at a critical juncture.” - Sydney

March 2016

  • Roundtable discussion (panel member): UNITAR“Creating a conflict: Ethics and War. A review of the South China Sea Crisis” - Geneva
  • Speaker: UN Security Council’s Peacekeeping Operations and Political Missions. “Peacebuilding strategies in non-violent spaces conference” - Geneva

October 2015

  • Presentation: University of Sydney's Festival of Democracy - "Heterotopia: Holding a mirror to indifference" - Sydney

May 2015

  • Invited discussion/review: WZB Berlin Social Science Centre, Berlin, Germany "Review of autocratic regimes: The Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos" - Berlin
  • Invited presentation/teaching: Institut de Hautes Études Internationales et du Dévelopement - Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies - Geneva

March 2015

  • Invited moderator & panel member: Q2 International Symposium on International Security. Invited expert to moderate the session: 'Diplomacy: Spacio-temporal, Multilateral and Adaptative', and join on the panel for the closing roundtable. Organised by the Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney

February 2015

  • Invited presentation: World Universities Network - International Indigenous Research Network roundtable. Sydney

June 2015

  • Roundtable discussion (Live broadcast): France Info - en direct du monde (translated) “A view of the world: can radicalisation develop inside refugee camps across southeast Asia?" – Paris

November 2014

  • Invited presentation: ASEAN Defence Minister’s Meeting.Bagan, Myanmar. “Background report”- Bagan



September 2014

  • Invited seminar & meetings: WZB – Berlin Social Science Centre (Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung - WZB), Germany- "Socio-economic disruptions and inequality behind ethnocultural conflicts in Southeast Asia" – Berlin

May 2014

  • Invited presentation. 24th ASEAN Summit, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar.“Background report: ethnocultural situation analysis” – Nay Pyi Taw

RECENT PUBLICATIONS, BROADCAST AND INTERVIEWS INCLUDE

N.B. During the last three decades Dr Bogais has produced a considerable number of analyses, essays, background reports, articles and broadcast material covering social, political, cultural and environmental issues – international with an emphasis on Southeast Asia and West Pacific. He has reviewed many policy documents and contributed in the drafting of strategic material for negotiations at international levels. (Bilingual: English and French.) For ethical reason, a significant body of his work is protected. More information on request. (The following is an extract of a range of non-sensitive material)

Latest live interviews/analyses with ABC TV NEWS 24 (Australia)
June 2017 — French parliamentary election (June 2017)… What does the future looks like for France after Macron's victory?
In this analysis, Dr Bogais suggests that social instability and unrest are inevitable….Link


Latest live interview with ABC TV News24
"Election in Cambodia: Is PM Hun Sen Loosing Grip on Power?"
In this analysis, Dr Bogais suggests that it would be wrong to assume that Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen is loosing his grip on power, despite the significant gains made by the opposition.
(8 June 2017)

Radio interview/analysis: 2SER (Australia),
“Comments on the French election results…" April 2017(Link)
Live radio interview/analysis: ABC (Australia), Richard Glover Drive
“French election in the wake of another terrorist attack in Paris…" April 2017
Radio interview/analysis: SBS French program (Australia)
“French election in the wake of another terrorist attack in Paris…" April 2017(Link)
Radio interview/analysis: ABC (Australia), Sunday Afternoon
“French election…" April 2017

Latest live interview with Blumberg TV (Global)
"Trump's foreign policy in Asia - What are Trump's plans?
In this analysis, Dr Bogais suggests that security and trade are profoundly intertwined in the new U.S. president's strategy, raising concerns in the region that a trade war between the U.S. and China - should it occurred - would have severe implications on regional security. (7 Feb 2017)

Article: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia
"Duterte plays a long game to secure Philippine advantage"
Behind the crude populism, Dr Bogais argue that President Duterte has an intuitive grasp of what is best for the Philippines. This analysis explores the Duterte phenomenon beyond the headlines. A different perspective based on on-the-ground knowledge and experience departing from the abundance of bias and paucity of fact that has marked the intellectual and political debate on this issue in recent times

NEWS:Jonathan's essay for the Middle East Institute, Middle East Asia Project (Washington DC), has been selected and recommended by the prestigious Consortium of Non-Traditional Security Studies in Asia, S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. The essay: "Violence and Contradictory coexistence of Peace and Conflict in the Asia Pacific Region" explores the making of a dominant identity to impose hegemony.

Religiously-motivated violence in Australia
Dr Bogais talks to Channel 10 Eyewitness News (National) and warns that divisions around religious issues are likely to bring more violence and increase the risk of terrorism. Analysing recent events overseas, especially in France, he stresses that polarisation will be detrimental to security. Political leaders and commentators must refrain from exacerbating tensions.

Interview: CNBC Online World News
"Dr Bogais comments on the consequences of the murder of Cambodian political commentator Kem Kay's on Cambodian politics"

Live interview/analysis: Channel News Asia, Singapore - "News"
“Former United Nations' General Secretary Kofi Anann to chair the newly formed Advisory Commission on the Rakhine State", an initiative by the Myanmar Government to address the Rohingya issue."

Live interview/analysis: Chanel News Asia, Singapore, News
“How has the Myanmar government fared in its first 100 days in office?" - 7 July 2016.More

Live interview/analysis: Channel News Asia, Singapore - "News"
“Elections in the Philippines. Who is Rodrigo Duterte? Why was his election win such a surprise for the international community? How will he address the challenging domestic issues facing his government and what will his position in the South China Sea crisis differ from that of his predecessor? "

Live interview/analysis: Blumberg TV (Global)
"China's sea claim dashed in court. What happens next? Dr Bogais analyses the future of the relationship between the Philippines and China, following the recent election of Rodrigo Duterte and his desire to resolve the crisis peacefully with Bejing. What impact will the ruling have for the region at a time of increasing tension?"More

Analysis: Filippino Radio (SBS)
"Tribunal's decision over the nine-dash line in the South China Sea". Dr Bogais analyses what's next for the Philippines and China after the Arbitration ruling.More

Latest article: The Huffington Post
"Australia Warns China to 'Heed Hague Ruling' on South China Sea"More

Latest article: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia
"Pitfalls ahead as Myanmar advances along democratic road"More..

Essay: Myanmar: The Transition from Social Order to Social Contract …
In this essay for the Middle East Institute (Middle East/Asia Project) based in Washington DC, Dr Bogais writes that the new leadership’s intent to enter into a social contract with its citizens requires an analysis of the mechanisms of social control, which is the evolution of the means of power rather than its nature. By closely observing the normalisation process lying ahead, the essay explores the complexity of the process to civilianize Myanmar..More..

Article: Myanmar: Democratisation and the Internal Contradictions of Ethnicity and Religion …
Article by Dr Bogais for the German - Southeast Asian Centre for Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG), a common institute of Thammasat University Bangkok and Goethe-University Frankfurt am Main, Westfälische Wilhelms-University Mūnster, and Passau University in Germany. CPG - located at Thammasat University Bangkok - is funded by the German Federal Foreign Affair Office and supported by the German Academic Exchange (DAAD).(Click here)

Article/Analysis: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia
“Cambodia on the Brink" - 4 December 2015More

LIVE: Channel News Asia
"Cambodia on the Brink of Political Crisis"

In this live discussion, Dr Bogais debates with Cambodia's Council of Ministers spokesperson, Mr Phay Siphon, the current political situation in Cambodia. Is Cambodia at crisis point ahead of the 2017/18 elections?
23 November 2015

Essay: “Violence and the contradictory coexistence of peace and conflict in the Asia/Pacific region”- Middle East Institute (Middle East/Asia Project), Washington DC – June 2016



Article: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia

"Pitfalls ahead as Myanmar advances along democratic road" - May 2016



Essay: “Myanmar: The Transition from Social Order to Social Contract” -Middle East Institute (Middle East/Asia Project), Washington DC – January 2016



Article: “Myanmar: Democratisation and the Internal Contradictions of Ethnicity and Religion” -German - Southeast Asian Centre for Excellence for Public Policy and Good Governance (CPG)



Article/Analysis: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia

“Cambodia on the Brink" - 4 December 2015



Live interview/analysis: Channel News Asia - "Between the Lines"

“Cambodia is on the brink of political collapse" - 23 November 2015



Article/Analysis: Asian Currents - Asian Studies Association of Australia

“Myanmar's toughest challenge lies ahead" - 20 November 2015



Interview: AlJazeera (Asia/Pacific)

“Amnesty International: Australian officials paid people smugglers" - Commentary - 29 October 2015



Article: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, U.S.

“Indonesia under Jokowi: Nationalism and Pluralism shapes Policy Calculus " - 26 October 2015



Article: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, U.S.

“Myanmar beyond the Elections: Strategy needed to address Sectarian Violence " - 23 October 2015



Presentation: "University of Sydney's Festival of Democracy"

"Heterotopia: Holding a mirror to indifference " – Presentation - 17 October 2015



Interview ‘ABC News 24 – Afternoon Live”

"The future of Australia defence alliances with the United States and Japan under the new government" – Analysis - 22 September 2015



Commentary/Interview: ‘Sky News' –

"Japan: An analysis of the new defence paradigms for the future of Japan's alliance with the United States and Australia – Analysis - 21 September 2015



Article: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, U.S.

“Malcolm Turnbull will bring new leadership culture, new policies to Australia " - 17 September 2015



Commentary/Interview: ‘Sky News' –

"Japan's 2015 White Paper on defence. An analysis of the domestic and international ramifications of this significant strategic document” – Analysis - July 2015



Interview /discussion (broadcast): France Info - en direct du monde

(translated) “A view of the world: can radicalisation develop inside refugee camps across southeast Asia?" - 30 June 2015



Interview (print): Straits Times, Singapore

“Abbott to ink strategic agreement with Singapore" Straits Times' Jonathan Pearlman asked Jonathan Bogais to comment on Prime Minister Abbott visit to Singapore - 23 June 2015.



Interview (print): Deutsche Welle, Germany

“Bribery allegations cast a shadow on Australia’s relationship with Indonesia”

Deutsche Welle’s Jack Fisher asked Dr Jonathan Bogais to comment on the impact of the allegation that Australian officials bribed people-smugglers on the relationship between Indonesia and Australia.Interview with Deutsche Welle - Thursday, 18 June 2015



Interview (print): Nikkei Asian Review, Japan

“Australia refugees controversy”Nikkei Asian Review asked Dr Jonathan Bogais to comment on how the allegation that Australian officials bribed people-smugglers might damage Australia’s reputation in the region.Interview with Nikkei Asian Review- Wednesday, 17 June 2015



Interview (live news broadcast): CBNC Asia & U.S.

"Why Aung San Suu Kyi's visit to China matters" Jonathan Bogais, adjunct associate professor at University of Sydney, discusses the significance of Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi's meeting with Chinese leaders.Interview with CNBC - Thursday, 11 June 2015 9:47 AM ET. Source: CNBC.com



Interview (news broadcast): CHINESE TVPhoenix Satellite Television

"Historical visit of Aung San Suu Kyi to China"Chinese TV asked Adjunct Associate Professor Jonathan Bogais to comment on Aung San Suu Kyi first visit to Chine.

Interview with Chinese TV - Thursday, 11 June 2015 8:00 PM ET. Source: Chinese TV



Invited discussion/review: WZB Berlin Social Science Centre, Berlin, Germany

"Review of autocratic regimes: The Philippines under Ferdinand Marcos" - May 2015



Article: Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC, U.S.

“Beyond the Critical Juncture: Myanmar’s 2015 Elections in Focus" - April 2015



Invited moderator & panel member: Q2 International Symposium on International Security

Moderator for session: 'Diplomacy: Spacio-temporal, Multilateral and Adaptative', and join on the panel for the closing roundtable. Organised by the Centre for International Security Studies, University of Sydney - March 2015



Interview/discussion (print): International Business Times’(New York)

Interview about trade and corruption in Myanmar -10 February 2015



Book review: ‘Asian Currents’ – Journal of the Asian Studies Association of Australasia’– February 2015 –

[“|Portrait of a pragmatist”] Review ofHun Sen’s Cambodia, by Sebastian Strangio. Yale University Press, 2014. 322pp



Invited presentation: World Universities Network - International Indigenous Research Network roundtable

“Putting out the fire - A perspective on intercultural relations” - 2 February 2015



Article: ‘Asian Currents’ – Journal of the Asian Studies Association of Australasia

“Religious apartheid in Myanmar” - December 2014



Invited presentation: WZB Berlin Social Science Centre, Berlin, Germany

"Socio-economic disruptions and inequality behind ethnocultural conflicts in Southeast Asia" - 22 September 2014



TV broadcast: '2014 Festival of Democracy' organised by the Sydney Democracy Network at the University of Sydney

"Cambodia: Rampant Corruption - State Endorsed" - 10 October 2014



Essay: “Middle East Institute – Middle East – Asia Project’, Washington DC, U.S.

“Democracy without social cohesion cannot exist – The Myanmar challenge” – Essay – June 2014



Commentary/Interview: ‘Sky News' –

"The Philippines - United States relationship: What does it means for the Asia/Pacific region?” – Analysis - June 2014



Article: ‘Asian Currents’ – Journal of the Asian Studies Association of Australasia

"Greed the unseen peril on Myanmar's road to Democracy” – Analysis - June 2014



Article: ‘Asian Currents' – Journal of the Asian Studies Association of Australasia

“Cambodians continue to struggle in an inequitable society” – Analysis - April 2014



Article: ‘The Conversation’

“Asia-Pacific focus will revitalise U.S. hegemony, but at what price?” - (Analysis) - 4 April 2014



Interview (live news broadcast) ‘ABC News 24 – Afternoon Live”

“ABC's Kim Landers asks Jonathan Bogais to comment live on the discussion between Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop and her Cambodian counterpart about sending asylum-seekers to Cambodia - 24 February 2014



Article: 'The Conversation’

“Engaging in Myanmar: Whose interest are we serving?” - Analysis - 6 January 2014



Article: 'The Conversation’

“US Military-led Humanitarian Intervention in the Philippines: A Message to China.” (Analysis. ‘Best read’ analysis for one week.) - Reproduced by SBS World News Australia online - 15 November 2013



Article: 'The Conversation’

“Want a better world? You can’t look at GMOs in isolation.” Analysis - 14 October 2013



Interview: SBS World News Australia

Topic: “Sweden has become the first European Union country to announce it will give asylum to all Syrian refugees who apply” - 6 September 2013



Interview (background report): SBS World News Australia

Topic: “Myanmar/Burma: This financial year Australia will give $82.8 million to Myanmar in aid. But is the money really helping lift people out of poverty?” - 22 August 2013



Interview (background report): SBS World News Australia

Topic: “Who are the Rohingya people?" - 29 May 2013



Books

· La Coutume- Règles non-écrites qui régissent l’équilibre social des Kanaks. Éditions Gallimart – 1999

· Chicka’s Story– The story of the late Aboriginal activist and leader, Charles “Chicka” Dixon Story. To be released mid-2018



Documentaries(Special personal research projects)

· ITV production for National Geographic – 2006 – “Sahul – First across the ocean” – Position: consulting producer & co-director

Co-production – 2008 – “Solo, The Andrew McAuley Story” – Winner of the 2009 AFI (Australian Film Institute) Award for best documentary under 1-hour. Position: Consulting producer

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