Antony Green

H04 - Merewether Building
The University of Sydney

Biographical details

Green has a Bachelor of Science in mathematics and computing, and a Bachelor of Economics with honours in Government and Public Administration from the University of Sydney. In 2014 he accepted the Doctor of Letters(honoris causa) degreefrom the University of Sydney in recognition of his creative and educational coverage. In 2015 he accepted an appointment as an Adjunct Professor in the Department of Government and International Relations of the University of Sydney. He has long been active on the Department’s External Advisory Committee and has frequently made himself available to student groups. In 2017 the Governor-General made him a member of the Order of Australia for his enhancement of Australian democracy through his work as election analyst for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.

Green started at the ABC in 1989. Since that time he has covered more than sixty elections, federal, state, by-elections, referenda, and municipal. He has also covered foreign elections for the ABC in the United Kingdom, Scotland, Canada, New Zealand, and the United States. He designed and created a computer system to predict elections on early data returns. In 2013 he created and introduced Vote Compass, a tool that allows voters to gauge the alignment of their preferences with candidates. Green also writes a comprehensive blog on electoral matters, which is a rich resource for psephologists.

For two generations of voters he is the face of election night coverage on the ABC. His open mindedness, good humour, and cool head have won him a loyal following, especially among younger voters.

Green has published in conventional sources. His Twitter feed has more than 120,000 followers, most of them under thirty. In addition, he has been an expert witness before parliamentary committee many times. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has sponsored his lectures in New Zealand in 2016 explaining the Australian electoral system.

Publications

Books

Federal Election Guide 1996, Antony Green, ABC books 1996

The Electoral Atlas of New South Wales 1856-2006, Eamonn Clifford, Antony Green and David Clune (eds), NSW Department of Lands 2006

Book Chapters

“The Senate,” Double Disillusion, forthcoming.

"Explaining the Results" in Abbott's Gambit: The 2013 Australian Federal Election, Carol Johnson, John Wanna and Hsu-Ann Lee (eds), ANU Press 2015

"The Results" in From Carr to Keneally – Labor in office in NSW 1995-2011, David Clune and Rodney Smith (eds), Allen and Unwin 2012

"The Constitutional Convention Election" in Constitutional Politics – The Republic Referendum and the Future, John Warhurst and Malcolm Mackerras (eds), University of Queensland Press 2002

"Bush Politics: The rise and fall of the Country/National Party" in Rurality Bites – The Social and Environmental Transformation of Rural Australia, Stewart Lockie and Lisa Burke (eds), Pluto Press 2001

NSW Parliamentary Library Monographs

1984-1991 Elections

New South Wales Elections 1984 to 1991: A Comparative Analysis, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Current Issues Background Paper
(Paper includes detailed analysis of each 1991 electorate compared with results for the 1984 and 1988 elections after adjusting for redistributions. Includes an analysis of Labor advantage in NSW state electoral boundaries, and also details of the record informal vote at the 1991 election.)

1988-1991 Elections

Changing Boundaries, Changing Fortunes: an analysis of the NSW Elections of 1988 and 1991, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Occassional Paper 7/1998
(Includes standard election result tables for the Legislative Assembly and summary of Legislative Council results. Paper includes summaries of the 1986/7 and 1990/1 redistributions. Includes by-elections 1984-1991.)

1991 Election

1991 New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election: Estimated Two-Candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Current Issues background Paper, No. 3/1994

1978-1995 Elections

Electing the New South Wales Legislative Council 1978 to 1995: Past Results and Future Prospects, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Current Issues Background Paper No.2/1995
(Paper includes a brief history of the Council, details of how the election count is conducted, and highlights differences with the Senate and Hare-Clark electoral systems. Includes an analysis of the political impact of group ticket or 'above the line' voting. Speculates on the possible outcome of the 1995 election following the 1991 referendum that changed the Council from a three-term to a two-term chamber, with future elections returning 21 rather than 15 MLCs. Summaries of Legislative Council elections and preference distributions from 1978 to 1991 included.)

1995 Election

New South Wales Election 1995, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 4/1995
(Standard tables for both houses and two referendums. Includes by-elections 1991-95.)

1995 Election

New South Wales Legislative Council Election 1995, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 2/1996
(Includes summary of the distribution of preferences. Summary tables of vote by party/group in each electorate, summary tables of party/group vote by electorate, and some comparison of party vote between the two chambers.)

1995 election

1995 New South Wales Election: Two-candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 5/1995

1997-8 redistribution

1997/98 NSW Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 4/1998
(1997/98 redistribution cut the number of Legislative Assembly electorates from 99 to 93.)

1999 Election

New South Wales Election 1999, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 6/1999
(Includes standard summary tables for both chambers. Includes summary of the 1997/98 redistribution. Includes summary of Assembly preference distributions, and an analysis of the political impact of optional preferential voting. Includes by-elections 1995-99.)

1999 Election

New South Wales Legislative Council Election 1999, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 2/2000
(Analysis of the famous 'tablecloth' ballot paper. Includes summary of the distribution of preferences. Summary tables of vote by party/group in each electorate, summary tables of party/group vote by electorate, and some comparison of party vote between the two chambers.)

1999 election

1999 New South Wales Election: Two-candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/1999
(Includes several additional table of highest and lowest percentage party vote by polling place.)

2003 Election

Implications of the 2001 Federal Election for the 2003 New South Wales Election, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2002
(Comparison of 1999 state, 1998 and 2001 Commonwealth elections adjusting for state electoral boundaries. Includes Legislative Council Analysis.)

2003 Election

Prospects for the 2003 Legislative Council Election, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 3/2002
(Includes analysis of how the Legislative Council count is conducted. Explains the impact of the new electoral laws introduced after the 1999 'tablecloth' ballot paper election. Speculates on the political impact of the changes. Publishes extensive details of preferences at the 1999 LC election based on a survey of ballot papers. Highlights parties where voters were mis-lead by the name of micro-parties.)

2003 Election

2003 New South Wales Election, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 6/2003
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 1999-2003. Includes selected Assembly preference distributions by party. Includes summary of New and departing MPs, and summary of vote by type.)

2003 Election

New South Wales Legislative Council Election 2003, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 8/2003
(Includes summary of preference distribution, summary of party vote by electorate, and electorate vote by party. Includes selected comparisons of party vote by chamber.)

2003 election

New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2003: Two-candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 7/2003
(Includes selected highest and lowest percentage party vote by polling place.)

NSW By-elections

New South Wales By-election 1965-2005, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 3/2005
(Includes analysis of the why, when and result of by-elections. Includes summary of all results 1986-2005.)

2004 Redistribution

2004 New South Wales Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2005
(Redistribution conducted for 93 electorates.)

2007 Election

2007 New South Wales Election: Final Analysis, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2008
(Includes all standard tables for both chambers. Includes summary of new and departing MPs. Includes a detailed compilation of preference flow data obtained from indicative preference counts conducted on election night.)

2007 Election

New South Wales Legislative Council Election 2007, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2009

2007 election

New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2007: Two-candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 2/2009

NSW By-elections

New South Wales By-elections 1965-2008, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Update to Background Paper No. 3/2005

2011 Election

2011 New South Wales Election Preview - Analysis of Past Voting Patterns by Electorate, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2011
(Includes comparative figures for each electorate at state elections since 1991, and commonwealth elections since 1996. Includes Opinion Polls 2007-2011 and summary of past Legislative Council results.

2011 Election

2011 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 3/2011
(Includes all standard tables for both chambers. Includes summary of new and departing MPs. Includes summary of statistical highlights of the result. Includes an update to previous publications on by-elections.)

2011 election

New South Wales Legislative Assembly Election 2011: Two-candidate Preferred Results by Polling Place, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2012

2013 Redistribution

2013 New South Wales Redistribution: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 2/2013
(Redistribution conducted for 93 electorates)

2015 Election

2015 New South Wales Election: Analysis of Results, Antony Green, NSW Parliamentary Library Research Service, Background Paper No. 1/2015
(Includes all standard tables for both chambers. Includes summary of new and departing MPs. Includes summary of statistical highlights of the result. Includes an update to previous publications on by-elections.)

Victorian Parliamentary Library Monographs

2001 Redistribution

2001 Victorian Redistribution, Antony Green, ABC Election Unit
(Conducted for 88 Assembly electorates and 22 Council provinces. Publication inlcudes summaries of party votes for all new electorates and provinces. Includes analysis comparing the results of the 1988 and 1999 elections taking account of the 1990/91 redistribution.)

2013 Redistribution

2013 Victorian Redistribution, Antony Green, ABC Election Unit
(Conducted for 88 Legislative Assembly electorates and 8 Legislative Council regions. Publication inlcudes summaries of party votes for all new electorates and listings of polling places transferred into and out of electorates. Includes estimated votes and quotas for new regions.)

Queensland Parliamentary Library Monographs

1986-1995 Elections

Queensland Elections 1986 to 1995: A Comparative Analysis, Antony Green, Queensland Parliamentary Libraray, Research Bulletin No. 5/96
(Results of 1986 and 1989 elections adjusted to matched the one-vote one-value electoral boundaries used for the 1992 and 1995 elections. Includes detailed analysis of regional vote and figures for each electoral district. Includes tables of preference distribution.)

1995 Election

The Queensland Election 1995, Antony Green, Queensland Parliamentary Library, Research Bulletin No. 1/95
(Election that saw the narrow return of the Goss Labor government. Publication includes usual analysis of results by electorate and two-party preferred and regional analysis.)

2008 Redistribution

2008 Queensland Redistribution: Analysis of Redistributed Boundaries based on 2006 Election Results, Antony Green, Queensland Parliamentary Library Research Brief No 2008/43
(Includes details of all new electorates and summary tables of 2006 results on old boundaries.)

Western Australian Parliamentary Library Publications

1996 Election

Western Australian State Election 1996, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2001
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes summary of the 1994 redistribution. Includes by-elections 1993-96. Includes 2-candidate preferred polling place result tables.Note: This publications corrects a minor error in the WA Electoral Commission's state totals, where an Independent candidate in Avon was included in the total Liberal vote.)

2001 Election

Western Australian State Election 2001, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.2/2001
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 1996-2001. Includes summary of preference distributions. Includes table comparing party vote in two chambers.)

2003 Redistribution

2003 Electoral Distribution Western Australian: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2003

2005 Election

Western Australian State Election 2005, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.2/2005
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 2001-05. Includes summary of 2003 redistribution. Includes table comparing party vote in two chambers. Includes summary of shopping hours referendum results. Includes table of new and departing members. Includes detailed analysis of preference flow data obtained from election night indicative preference counts. Includes by-elections 2001-05.)

2007 Redistribution

2007 Electoral redistribution Western Australian: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.2/2007
(Redistribution following the introduction of one-vote one-value electoral boundaries. Includes maps of electorates in new regions.)

2008 Election

2008 Western Australian State Election: Analysis of Results, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2009
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 2005-08. Includes summary of 2007 redistribution. Includes table comparing party vote in two chambers. Includes table of new and departing members. Includes summaries of preference distributions.)

2011 Redistribution

2011 Redistribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2011
(Redistribution of electoral boundaries to bring electorates back within permitted variation from quota. Includes maps of electorates in new regions.)

2013 Election

2013 Western Australian State Election: Analysis of Results, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2013
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 2008-13. Includes summary of 2011 redistribution. Includes table comparing party vote in two chambers. Includes table of new and departing members. Includes summaries of preference distributions.)

2015 Redistribution

2015 Redistribution Western Australia: Analysis of Final Boundaries, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2015
(Redistribution of electoral boundaries to bring electorates back within permitted variation from quota. Includes maps of electorates in new regions.)

2017 Election

2017 Western Australian State Election: Analysis of Results, Antony Green, Western Australian Parliamentary Library, Election Papers Series No.1/2017
(Includes standard tables for both chambers. Includes by-elections 2013-17. Includes summary of 2015 redistribution. Includes table comparing party vote in two chambers. Includes table of new and departing members. Includes summaries of preference distributions and Legislative Council results by lower house electorate.)

Selected publications

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Book Chapters

  • Green, A. (2018). The Senate Results. Double Disillusion: The 2016 Australian Federal Election, (pp. 185-209). Acton ACT: ANU Press.

2018

  • Green, A. (2018). The Senate Results. Double Disillusion: The 2016 Australian Federal Election, (pp. 185-209). Acton ACT: ANU Press.

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