2014 Unit of Study
The session(s) below are for 2014. For Summer School 2014 unit of study availability please visit the Summer School website (main Summer session January/February 2014).
The University of Sydney session calendar shows exact dates for sessions.
|Financial Time Series and Forecasting|
|Prerequisites||ECMT5001 or QBUS5001|
|Lectures||1 x 2hr lecture and 1 x 1hr tutorial|
|Assessment||Individual assignment (15%), mid-semester exam (15%), group assignment (40%), and final exam (30%)|
|Description||Time series and statistical modelling is a fundamental component of the theory and practice of modern financial asset pricing as well as financial risk measurement and management. Further, forecasting is a required component of financial and investment decision making. This unit firstly provides an introduction to the time series models used for the analysis of data arising in financial markets. Second, it considers methods for forecasting, testing and sensitivity analyses, in the context of these models. Topics include: the properties of financial return data; the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM); financial return factor models, with known and unknown factors, in panel data settings; modelling and forecasting conditional volatility, via ARCH and GARCH; forecasting market risk measures such as Value at Risk. Emphasis will be placed on applications involving the analysis of many real market datasets. Students will be encouraged to undertake hands-on analysis using an appropriate computing package.|