Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies

Improving the Basis of Travel Demand Forecasting

Dr Andrew Daly, Senior Research Fellow, RAND Europe; Research Professor, Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds, UK

2nd Jul 2013  11:00 am - Lecture Theatre 2 (Room 112), Level 1, St James Campus, The University of Sydney, 173-175 Phillip Street, Sydney, NSW 2000

Abstract: Appraising transport infrastructure or deciding whether transport policy such as road pricing or public transport subsidy is beneficial to society requires forecasts of travel flows, which are routinely made in developed countries by models of quite large scale. These models are difficult to understand, and often misunderstood, and are subject to criticism for their errors and inflexibilities.This seminar will discuss what can be done, using choice modelling, to clarify the basis of the modelling and to remove some of the dubious aspects. However, forecasting remains subject to professional judgement and cannot be made entirely rigorous. At the same time, analysts have a duty to advance their models to take account of modern developments in choice modelling, for example by the inclusion of attitudinal variables, the use of non-linear representations of key variables and representing the varying decision-making paradigms that the population might be using. The author will refer to his experience in developing the Sydney Strategic Transport Model and similar models in a dozen other countries.

Bio: Andrew Daly is a Senior Research Fellow at RAND Europe, a Research Professor at the Institute for Transport Studies in Leeds and the author of the widely-used ALOGIT software; he received the 2012 Lifetime Achievement Award from the International Association for Travel Behaviour Research and was instrumental in founding the International Choice Modelling Conference series. His work has attempted to bridge the gap between research and practice in choice modelling: pioneering the introduction of random utility models, making advanced models operational for large areas so they can be used in practical planning and improving the credibility of Stated Choice methods. He has published and presented about 200 papers on these subjects, has contributed to a number of books and regularly reviews papers for the leading transport journals. He has directed major transport modelling projects in The Netherlands, France, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Australia and the UK and contributed to projects in several other countries. He frequently advises local, national and international government agencies on transport modelling and valuation.