Working Papers 1991-2001


On Measuring Supply Chain Competency of Nations: A Developing Country Perspective
The Impact of Staging a Major Event on Commuters' Work and Travel Behaviour: Olympic Games
Brewer and Hensher
Challenges for Freight Logistics in the New (Value) Economy
Brewer and Hensher
TRESIS: A Transportation, Land Use and Environmental Strategy Impact Simulator for Urban Areas
Hensher and Ton
Choosing between Conventional, Electric and LPG/CNG Vehicles in Single-Vehicle Households
Hensher and Greene
Environmental Responsibility on Campus: Stakeholder Views on the Environmental Performance of the University of Sydney
Hensher and King
Developing a Freight Strategy: The Use of a Collaborative Learning Process to Secure Stakeholder Input
Hensher and Brewer
The Valuation of Non-Commuting Travel Time Savings for Urban Car Drivers
Behind the Subjective Value of Travel Time Savings: The Perception of Work, Leisure and Travel
Jara-Diaz and Guevara
Safety in the Road Environment: A Driver Behavioural Response Perspective
Wang, Hensher and Ton
The Goods-Activities Technical Relations in the Time Allocation Theory
Induced Travel and User Benefits: Clarifying Definitions and Measurement for Urban Road Infrastructure
Abelson and Hensher
Service Quality as a Package: What does it mean to Heterogeneous Consumers?
Using Passive GPS as a Means to Improve Spatial Travel Data
Australian Bus Safety: Insight and Issues
Hildebrand and Rose
This paper was developed by ITLS Monash, to order please contact
Survey Data Repair using Hot-Deck Imputation Procedure
Dadala and Stopher
A Review of Empirical Research on Total Quality Management Using Scale Developing Methods: An Australian Perspective
The Future of TQM is Past. Can TQM be Resurrected?
Tradeoffs In ATIS Deployment : A Study of In-Vehicle Navigation And Older Drivers
This paper was developed by ITLS Monash, to order please contact
Going for Gold at the Sydney Olympics: How did Transport Perform?
Hensher and Brewer
Changes in the Emission of Air Pollutants and CO2 from Passenger Cars in Sydney from 1981 to 1999
Work-related Travel Activity and the Sydney 2000 Olympic Games: A Longitudinal Study of Commuters Coping Strategies
Brewer and Wang
Real-time Cost Management of Aircraft Operations
Burrows, Brown, Thom, King and Frearson


Identifying the Overarching Logistics Strategy of Business Practices
Ann M. Brewer and David A. Hensher
Do Mergers And Alliances Influence European Shipping And Port Competition?
Trevor Heaver
Evaluation methodologies for transport projects in the United Kingdom: dealing with multi-modal questions
Roger Vickerman
The Absolute Need for Creativity in Transport Planning
Anthony Richardson
The Use of Mixtures of Market and Experimental Choice Data in Establishing Guideline Weights for Evaluating Competitive Bids in a Transport Organisation
David A. Hensher, Jordan J. Louviere, & David E. Hansen
Freight Logistics In The New Zealand Context
Jay Sankaran
Interorganizational Support and Strategies for the ASEAN Aviation Sector: An Application of Canonical Correlation Analysis
David A. Hensher and Chackrit Duangphastra
An Inductive Empirical Investigation Into Third Party Logistics Contracts
Jay Sankaran & Zane Charman
The Valuation of Travel Time Savings for Urban Car Drivers: Evaluating Alternative Model Specifications
David A. Hensher
Assessing Data and Modelling Needs for Urban Transport Sector: An Australian Perspective
David A. Hensher
Transport and Economic Growth
Roger Vickerman
Trip Chaining as a Barrier to the Propensity to use Public Transport
David A. Hensher & April J. Reyes
Measurement of the Valuation of Travel Time Savings
David A. Hensher
Behavioural Mechanisms of Non-Response in Mailback Travel Surveys
A. J. Richardson
Public Transport Timetables and Vehicle Scheduling with Balanced Passenger Loads
Avi Ceder
Combining Sources of Preference Data
Jordan J. Louviere & David A. Hensher
The Sensitivity of the Valuation of Travel Time Savings to the Specification of Unobserved Effects
David A. Hensher
Which Bus? Research on the Use and Comprehension of Public Transport Information
David Denmark

The following papers were developed at ITLS Monash, to order please contact

Level of Service on Collector Roads
Brigitta Liepe & William Young
Factors Affecting Freight Mode Choice in Java, Indonesia: The Application of an Ordered Probit Model
Ir. Olly Norojono MSc. & William Young
A Stated Preference Freight Mode Choice Model
Ir. Olly Norojono MSc. & William Young
Behavioural Impacts of the 'Travel Blending' Programme
Elizabeth Ampt & Geoffrey Rose
ITLS Elements of a Campus TDM Program
Geoffrey Rose
'Safe Routes to School' Implementation in Australia
Geoffrey Rose


Understanding Travel Behaviour: Some Appealing Research Directions
D. A. Hensher
How are Urban Bus Fleets Performing in Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions? The Australian Experience
D. A. Hensher & J. King
Valuation of Environmental Impacts of Transportation Projects: The Challenge of Self-Interest Proximity
R. Daniels & D. A. Hensher
Specification and Estimation of Nested Logit Models
David A. Hensher & William H. Greene**
Regaining the Fundamentals
Alastair Stone
Conjoint Preference Elicitation Methods in the Broader Context of Random Utility Theory Preference Elicitation Methods
D. A. Hensher, J. J. Louviere & J. Swait
Modelling Road Safety Trends and Predicting Road Fatalities in Australia
B. Wang, D. A. Hensher & T. Ton
Parking Demand and Responsiveness to Availability, Pricing and Location in the Sydney Central Business District
D. A. Hensher & J. King
Evolution and Revolution: the Changing Focus of Regulation of the World's Railways
B. Waters & D. A. Hensher
Suitability of Fuel Efficiency as a Criterion in Passenger a Vehicle Classification: An Investigation of the Classification Capability of Decision Tree Approach
T.Ton & B.Wang
Measuring Service Quality and Evaluating its Influence on the Cost of Service Provision
D.A. Hensher & P. Prioni
Are More Profiles Better than Less? Searching for Parsimony and Relevance in Stated Choice Experiments
P. Stopher & D.A. Hensher
Getting Planes off the Ground: Key Concepts and Issues in Airport Capacity Planning and Management
K. Raguraman
The Missing Link in Contract Performance Assessment: The Integration of a Service Quality Index into a Competitive Tendering Regime
D. A. Hensher & P. Prioni
A Survey Method for Cycle Networks a Swiss Example

The following papers were developed at ITLS Monash, to order please contact

Modelling Urban Freight: What Works, What Doesn't Work?
Taylor & Button
Improving Dynamic Travel Time Estimates for Melbourne's Drive Time System
Patterson, Rose & Bean
Simulated Consulting: A Win-Win Experience in Transport Engineering Education


Distributed Work and Travel Behaviour: The Dynamics of Interactive Agency Choices between Employers and Employees.
A. Brewer and D. A. Hensher
Measuring Total Factor Productivity of Airports - An Index Number Approach
P. Hooper and D. Hensher
A Comparison of Elasticities Derived from Multinomial Logit, Nest Logit and Heteroscedastic Extreme Value SP-RP Discrete Choice Models
D. A. Hensher and J. Louviere
Interacting Agents and Discrete Choices in Logistics Outsourcing: A Conceptual Framework
D. A. Hensher and G. Chow
A Comparison of the Predictive Potential of Artificial Neural Networks and Nested Logit Models for Commuter Mode Choice
D. A. Hensher and T. Ton
Public Sector Financing of Urban Services
A. Stone
The Use Of Object-Oriented Programming Approach In Representing Traffic Noise At The Network Level
T. Ton
The Imbalance between Car and Public Transport Use in Urban Australia: Why Does it Exist?
D. A. Hensher
Work Design, Flexible Work Arrangements and Travel Behaviour: Policy Implications
A. Brewer
Strategic Alliances Among International Airlines and their Implications for Organisational Change
P. Hooper and A. Brewer
Work Design for Flexible Work Scheduling: Barriers and Gender Implications
A. Brewer
Aviation policy in South East Asia: alliances, "open skies" bilaterals and regional airline markets
P. Hooper and C. Duangphastra
Searching for Policy Priorities in the Formulation of a Freight Transport Strategy: An Analysis of Freight Industry Attitudes Towards Policy Initiatives
D. A. Hensher and T. Golob
Road Rage: What, Who, When, Where and How?
A. Brewer
Needs Assessment for Major Transport Infrastructure Investment
D. A. Hensher
Environmental Responsiveness in the Bus and Coach Supply Chain: The Case of Greenhouse Gas Emission Production Through Improved Energy and Waste Practices
A. Brewer
Computer Modelling in Transport Planning: An Investigation of the Current Issues and the Potential of Component Object Model (COM) Approach
T. Ton
Forecasting Aircraft Movements - An unavoidable case of uncertainty
P. Hooper, Cain and Berg

The following papers were developed at ITLS Monash, to order please contact

Travel Demand Management and itls Application at Australian University Campuses
J. Hynes and G. Rose
Delays at Freeway Roadworks: Safety and Road User Cost Considerations
G. Rose and D. Paterson
Is Local Government Addressing the Implementation Issues in Road Safety Audit?
P. Daly, C. Morgan and P. Jordan
Implementation of Road Safety Audit
P. Daly, T. Francis and C. Morgan
Applying Vehicle Tracking And Palmtop Technology To Urban Freight Surveys
S. Taylor, J. Green and A. J. Richardson
The Reality of Survey Results; An Urban Goods Movement Case Study
S. Taylor and K. W. Ogden
An Overview of Intelligent Transport Systems Research at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies at Monash University
G. Rose
"Quality of Life", Road Pricing and the "Level of Service" of Urban Roads
W. Young and P. Daly
"Privatisation and management education in the transport industry"
S. Taylor and W. Young


Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Australian Commuters' Attitudes and Behaviour Concerning Abatement Policies and Personal Involvement
Hensher & Golob
Intelligent Transport Systems - A New Era in Telematics Technology
Productivity of Australian Container Terminals: Some Critical Issues
Robinson & Everett
Establishing Fare Elasticity Regimes for Urban Passenger Transport: Time-Based Fares for Concession and Non-Concession Markets Segmented by Trip Length
Hensher & King
Asian Hub/Feeder Nets: The Dynamics of Restructuring
Establishing a Fare Elasticity Regime for Urban Passenger Transport: Non-Concession Commuters
Reforming Ports: Issues in the Privatisation Debate
Robinson & Everett
Combining Sources of Preference Data: The Case of the Lurking Lambdas
Hensher, Louviere & Swait
Liberalising Airline Competition in India: Relevant Lessons from the Australian Experience
Markets, Government and Environmental Policy Issues for Public Transit
Hensher and Beesley
The Future of Exclusive Busways: The Brazilian Experience
Smith and Hensher
Developments in the Aviation Industry in Australia and Asia - Implications for Australian Tourism
Evaluating Minimum Service Levels for Bus Services Using Geographical Information Systems
Ton and Hensher
"Open Skies" in India - Is It Succeeding?
Imposing Symmetry on a Complex Matrix of Commuter Travel Elasticites
Taplin, Hensher & Smith

The following papers were developed at ITLS Monash, to order please contact

Attitude and Travel Behaviour Change Using Survey Feedback: Insight from Dutch and Australian Experience
Reducing Car Travel Through an 'Individual Action' Programme
Rose and Ampt
Proceedings of CAITR 97 - The 19th conference of the Australian Institutes of Transport Research
Daly ed.
Interpreting Commercial Vehicle Survey Data
Taylor and Ogden
Technology Application for Freight Data Collection
The Utilisation of Commercial Vehicles in Urban Areas
Taylor and Ogden


Urban Public Transport Futures: Broadening the Policy Debate
Abstract: The Fourth International Conference on Competition and Ownership in Land Passenger Transport, held 10-12 July 1995 in Rotorua, New Zealand, provided a forum for presentation and debate on the latest developments in the provision of land-based public transport. Over 120 participants from around the world gathered over 4 days in 5 workshops and 3 plenary sessions. The workshops were 1: Competitive models and impacts, 2: User requirements, 3: Rail sector issues, 4: Regulatory reform and transport policy development and 5: International experiences in competitive operations. The opening address and workshop reports presented herein enable a wider audience to benefit from the outcomes of the deliberations.
Accessible Buses in a Commercial Environment
Abstract: This paper considers the operations of accessible urban buses in a commercial environment with particular reference to the provision of services in Wellington, New Zealand. The goal of achieving fully accessible urban public transport is shared by government authorities in many OECD countries. This goal has been expressed in both specific legislation that relates directly to urban transport (eg the "Americans with Disabilities Act" (ADA) or in the adoption of board human rights policies that imply such accessibility (eg the Australian "Disability Discrimination Act 1992" (DDA)). The implementation of this policy has given rise to widespread controversy in regard to practicality; cost effectiveness; reverse discrimination against other transport users; and ultimate financial responsibility. This controversy has been fuelled by the board range of goals on the part of accessibility advocates, from those who are intent on developing a working transport system that provides a wider range transport options for the disabled, to those who see accessibility as a "right" that cannot be compromised by practical or financial issues.
This paper addresses these firstly from the perspective of the operator who provides service in a commercial, competitive environment, and highlights the contrast between this environment and that in the United States, Europe and Australia where different regulations apply. Secondly, the broad issues of accessibility in buses are discussed. Thirdly, the impact that accessibility requirements will have on bus design and urban transport infrastructure are outlined, with an emphasis on the impact on smaller and medium sized buses. Fourthly, the capital and operating costs are quantified. Finally, the resolution process that has been implemented in Australia to replace legal argument is described.
Intercity Rail Services: Evaluating Pricing Options
Abstract: This is a renewed interest in intercity and long-distance rail services in many countries, with both new high-speed rail services and improvements to conventional rail under review. The current study reports on an investigation in 1990 of the demand for sleeper, motorail and dining services between Sydney, Northern NSW. and Brisbane, a 12 to 14 hour trip, just after a decision by the NSW government to temporarily suspend sleeper and motorail services and introduce XPT seating service only, pending an inquiry into the demand for such loss-making services under alternative price and service levels. A matrix of direct and cross fare elasticities within the rail mode and between rail and competing modes are obtained for concession and non-concession travellers. The empirical evidence extends our knowledge of the sensitivity of the long distance passenger market to a range or rails fares, distinguishing between classes of fares and levels of service.
A Practical Approach to Identifying the Market Potential for High Speed Rail: A Case Study in the Sydney Canberra Corridor
Abstract: This paper presents the methodology and selective empirical results from a study of the demand for a high speed rail (HSR) system serving the Sydney-Canberra corridor currently dominated by air travel for business trips and car travel for non-business trips. We outline the steps involved in the study from problem specification, data needs, development of base year trip tables, model specification and estimation to establish switching behaviour in the presence of a new mode and calculation of induced demand for current travellers. A stated choice heteroskedastic extreme value switching model is used to evaluate the choice of HSR fare type for business and non-business travel given the current mode used in the corridor for each sampled traveller - conventional train, charter coach, scheduled coach, plane or car. Starting with the current travel profile, HSR patronage can be predicted under alternative fare regimes, taking into account diverted traffic, induced traffic and growth. Treating fare class as endogenous enhances the real choice context facing potential patrons of HSR.
Designing Transport and Urban Forms for the Australia of the 21st Century
Richmond, Troy, Hensher and Bray
Abstract: Papers presented at workshop on "Designing Transport & Urban Forms for the Australia of the 21st Century" on Tuesday 30 April 1996 at the Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies (Sydney), University of Sydney. Four papers critically review the direction of current Australian policies for transport and urban form and make recommendations for the development of affective for the Australia of the 21st Century.
Australian Airports: The Case for Privatisation
Abstract: Privatisation of the airports of the Federal Airports Corporation has been supported by both sides of Parliament. After reviewing the Labor party policy which established airport privatisation on the national agenda, this Paper examines the various changes that have been introduced into that policy and discusses their effects in terms of efficiency and price benefits and disbenefits together with price maximisation. It concludes that the policy has been devaluated over time and that the final outcome cannot deliver the tangible benefits that were originally promised.
Changing Ownership Strategies for Australian Ports: Some Emerging Issues
Abstract: Microeconomic reform has characterised the Australian maritime sector over the last decade or so. Shipping reform, waterfront reform and the current changing ownership strategies of state governments throughout Australia have focused on enhancing efficiency and competitiveness of Australian ports. Within this environment ports are no longer seen as public utilities but are expected to be market driven profit maximising operations similar to any private sector business venture. This paper examines a number of different strategies being implemented by state governments and some of the real and/or anticipated benefits that will result.
The paper argues that if government business enterprises are to operate along private sector lines then an appropriate legislative framework must be set in place. The paper looks in some detail at changes in NSW ports where problems are already emerging precisely because the ports were corporatised under an inappropriate legislative structure.
Transport and Environmental Management
Hensher, Hooper, Robinson, Everett
Abstract: The objective of this paper is to highlight the environmental impacts associated with provision of transport services necessary for the movement of passengers and goods. The management of the transport sector requires trade-offs to be made between three major goals of transport management - growth, equity and environmental sustainability. To place the discussion on ways of reducing the environmental impacts of transport activity in context, we review international trends in emission of the major noxious air pollutants, and then take a close look at policy instruments which might contribute to reducing the impact that transport services have on the quality of the environment.
Extending Valuation to Controlled Value Functions and Non-Uniform Scaling with Generalised Unobserved Variances
Abstract: A common by-product of discrete choice models is the marginal rate of substitution between two attributes (one usually measured in monetary units). The typical output is a point estimate value. In reality there is a distribution of values around a mean which is the product of non-linearities in the role of each attribute in utility space, as well as covariate influences that condition the role of taste weights in dimensioning the relative importance of each attribute in a choice setting. This paper considers the broad issue of breaking away from valuation to valuation functions, the need to use appropriate experimental design procedures and mean centering or orthogonal codes in estimation with translation back to the real attribute levels in order to reveal the appropriate evaluation distributions. By relaxing the strict constant variance condition in practical discrete choice models, we are able further to absorb unobserved sources of behavioural variability which if not allowed for tend to produce an overvaluation. We illustrate the methods discussed above with a case study on choice of existing and potential commuter modes in six Australian capital cities.
Economic Significance of High Speed Rail
Abstract: The successes of existing high speed rail systems: the Shinkansen in Japan and TGV in France, have been widely reported. This paper presents evidence of the benefits of HSR as reported by studies carried out on the existing high speed rail systems. There are many benefits attributed to high speed rail systems which can be broadly classified into: Social/Public benefits; Economic benefits and Environmental benefits. While widely reported and evident, there has however been very little research carried out to qualify the benefits to the respective countries in which HSR has been introduced. Although limited, the available research does suggest a positive net benefit to the economy as a while.

The following papers were developed at ITLS Monash, please contact to order:

An ITLS Vision for Melbourne's Southbank Precinct
Rose, Young, Ijin
Abstract: Melbourne's Southbank area is achieving prominence as an activity centre because of the variety of cultural, sporting and entertainment opportunities which it provides. This paper outlines opportunities to maximise the economic and social value of the area by facilitating travel to and through the area. The focus here concerns the integration of intelligent transport systems (ITLS) into the Southbank area. ITLS covers the application of advanced information processing and communications, sensing and control technologies to surface transport. ITLS will assist in the reduction of traffic congestion and inconvenience to drivers, public transport users, pedestrians, bicyclists and other travellers. The level of technology that is presently available revolves around variable message roadside signs, radio broadcasts and telephone services. For motorised vehicles, roadside systems appear to present the best option for parking and traffic information. Radio and television systems have the advantage of reaching an urban-wide audience while the roadside systems can focus on particular areas. The linear nature of the Southbank area and associated transport infrastructure lends itself to roadside information providing directions to parking and other facilities. Information for pedestrians can be provided in localised information booths or kiosks. This information could relate to entertainment, places of interest, public transport timetables, provisions of taxi services and parking. The Southbank area stands to benefit not only in the long term but also during the period when much of the area is being developed, from investment in an ITLS to cater for the diverse needs of the many people will visit Melbourne's entertainment, sporting and cultural hub.
Accident Analysis and Investigation: The Role of Road Safety Engineering
Abstract: This paper was presented at a VicRoads Workshop for road safety engineers, held in Geelong on 2-5 June, 1996. It presents an overview of accident analysis and investigation, with particular emphasis on the role which the road safety engineer plays in road safety. The paper briefly reviews the road safety situation, highlighting different ways of viewing it, and then discusses generic approaches to road safety. The contribution of road safety engineering is discussed in terms of the road traffic system, hazardous road locations, identification of hazardous sites, diagnosis of accident problems, the development of countermeasures, and orad safety audit. Brief mention is made of the appraisal of road safety programs, and monitoring and evaluation.
Analysis of Crash Patterns at Signalised Intersections
Ogden and Newstead
Abstract: The paper reviews the crash patterns evident at signalised intersections in Victoria, and shows that such crashes are of four main types - right through, rear end, adjacent approaches, and pedestrian crashes. Crash patterns are then analysed in detail, focussing on the differences in site and operational characteristics between sites with a high, normal and low accident frequency over the 5 years (1987-1991) based upon an analysis of accident data and entering traffic volumes. The study indicated that the majority of the variation in accidents were not explained by traffic volumes, but by other factors. While no single factor was identified which would lead to a dramatic improvement in safety at signalised intersections, a range of measures were identified which would likely contribute to improved safety if applied at specific sites where relevant.
Urban Goods Movement and Sydney's Economy
Taylor, Ogden and Peachman
Abstract: Freight transport is a key component of the role for roads in the national economy, particularly in urban areas, but our understanding of the urban freight transport system is very limited. Until recently there were minimal recent data available on urban goods movement in Australia, but data collection in several States and Sydney has partially relieved this situation. This paper discusses analysis of freight data collected in the Sydney Commercial Vehicle Survey (CVS).
Broad analysis of the 1991/92 CVS of the Greater Sydney Metropolitan Region was undertaken to determine the patterns and behaviour of freight carrying vehicles. The survey was in the form of a mail-out, mail-back self completion questionnaire and was undertaken by the Transport Data Centre, a section within the Department of Transport, NSW. The majority of the paper is drawn from the principal author's thesis on Urban Freight Activities in Sydney, undertaken at Monash University. Result of the CVS are discussed with specific reference to temporal patterns, trip lengths, trip durations, and the temporal distributions of pick-ups and deliveries. These factors are also discussed in the context of the Sydney network and economy, and particularly in relation to the implications for transport planning and policy.
Comparitive Performance of Freeway Automated Incident Detection Algorithms
Dia, Rose and Snell
Abstract: Common measures of performance of incident detection algorithms are detection rate, false alarm rate and mean time-to-detect. These measures are not independent and it is therefore necessary to determine the underlying performance trade off. In this paper, the performance of the incident detection algorithm currently implementedon Melbourne's freeways is evaluated based on a set of one hundred incidents that occurred on Melbourne's freeways under varying traffic conditions. The results are interpreted in relation to the broader operational experience with the incident detection algorithm. An improved algorithm, based on artificial neural networks, is also presented. An independent set of forty incidents, not used in the development of either model, was used for comparing the performance of the two algorithms. Evaluation results, in terms of detection rate, false alarm rate and mean time-to-detect are presented using performance envelope curves that show the trade off in performance between the two models. The results clearly demonstrate the substantial improvement in incident detection performance obtained by the ANN model over the ARRB/VicRoads model.
Activity Modelling of Urban Traffic Movements
Daly and Young
Abstract: Many transport models use unrealistic representation of vehicle trip linkages. This paper presents a model that moves towards incorporating vehicle trip linkages into a framework capable of answering policy questions in a realistic manner. The model is developed using data from the South East Queensland Household Travel Survey. Variability in the nature of trip chaining and number of unique chains found in the South East Queensland area data is discussed. The nature, role and method of incorporation of this data into the model is discussed. The staging of the model is explained and initial applications of the model are foreshadowed.
The Impact of Data Quality on the Performance of Neural Network Incident Detection Models
Dia and Rose
Abstract: One of the challenges in using field data for the development of neural network incident detection models is to be able to train models that can handle the noisy nature of the loop detector data. The noise in the field data, which may be the result of either a systematic or random error, can have an adverse effect on the performance of an incident detection model, especially in terms of false alarm rate. This paper describes a number of procedures for evaluating the impact of data quality on the performance of a neural network incident detection model that was trained and tested on field data (comprising speed, flow and occupancy measurements) collected from a number of freeways in Melbourne, Australia. Since this model was developed for implementation in an actual system, the paper also reports on a number of techniques and procedures for evaluating the model's performance for evaluating the model's performance in the case of missing or incorrect data either during training or after implementation. In addition to the original research findings reported in this paper, the described procedures are also of interest to practitioners since they address many issues relevant to the implementation of incident detection systems and the quality of the detector data. These issues include evaluating the impact of detector failures, communications malfunction and missing or incorrect data on the model's performance. In addition, the paper also describes how the same procedures can be used to evaluate the impact of speed data on the models performance (ie, the impact of using dual-loop instead of single-loop detectors).
Transport, Traffic and Land Use: The Changing Roles of Local Government
Chandler and Ogden
Abstract: There are a number of important changes occurring in local government which have the potential to significantly influence the role which this level of government plays through itls influence on transport and land use. These changes include: larger local government units and the consequent tendency towards a strategic outlook; the withdrawal of State or central governments from some areas creating a vacuum which local governments may move to fill; a tendency towards partnership arrangements for major projects which may involve all levels of government; and (in Victoria, at least) the requirement for compulsory competitive tendering.
This paper examines the effects of these factors in three areas:
  • Integration of land use development and transport provision. Notwithstanding a lot of talk and fine motives, we argue that the potential value of the community of a greater integration of land use and urban planning has not been realised. We suggest that local government, with itls local understanding and responsibility and access to most of the important instruments of policy, is in a strong position to achieve better results. Greater attention to detail in implementation - good urban design - has often been an important missing element.
  • Public transport. While some local authorities in Australia and New Zealand have a very significant role in public transport, most do not. However, local government is likely to play a larger role in the future, extending beyond community transport to involvement in such aspects as bus routes and timetables, responsibility for certain infrastucture, e.g. railway stations, and a revised community bus role.
  • Road safety. Local government has always had an important role in road safety, but this is likely to increase in the future. Land use development and decisions related to control (or lack of control) of access greatly affect safety, and these decisions are a key local government responsibility. The potential for the application of road safety audits to development proposals, as well as other stages in the road design process, is also emergent.
The Impact of Data Quality on the Performance of Neural Network Freeway Incident Detection Models
Dia and Rose
Abstract: One of the difficulties in the development of artificial neural network (ANN) models is that, unlike statistical modelling where estimates of sample size can be initially computed, the number of samples or observations needed for training ANN models cannot be determined in advanced. This is further complicated when dealing with the 'real world' data that is not easily available or difficult and time consuming to collect. It is therefore desired that the impact of sample size on model performance be investigated such that the trade-off in performance using different sample sizes is evaluated. This issue is discussed in this paper in the context of a neural network freeway incident detection model that was developed using 'real world' incident and traffic data. From a practical perspective, the impact of sample size on model performance will provide an insight into the sample size of 'real world' data required to train ANN incident detection models. The results reported in this paper can also be used to make decisions about the sample size required for retraining an ANN incident detection model once it becomes out of data due to changed traffic conditions and/or upgrading of the facility.
Local Government and its Changing Role in Transport and Land Use Integration
Abstract: Land use/transport integration is no longer a nice sounding professional platitude. It is a major factor in the challenger of achieving adequate urban infrastructure world-wide. In different countires and different circumstances there are variations in importance, but is is not uncommon for transport elements to account for more than half the toal infrastructure costs of new suburban development (Saggers 1990). There is a high degree of consensus about the importance of land use/transport integration, but there is also a major gulf between the rhetoric and the reality. The subject of land use/transport integration is not new. Some readers may proclaim - 'no, not again'. But here in lies the problem. Despite consensus about the importance of the subject, the practice has been found wanting.
This paper is based on a Masters thesis prepared at Monash University by Chandler (1994), which was supervised by Professor Ken Ogden. The thesis reviewed past actions related to the interaction between transport and land use in Melbourne, Australia. It concluded, firstly, that there had not been spectacular success in integrating transport and land use decisions and secondly that, amongst other actions, the chances of success in integration would likely be greater if Local Government played a more significant and effective role.
Firstly, this paper, identifies contemporary circumstances in Australia which have led to a resurgence of interest in the subject. Secondly, it highlights a resultant deterioration in quality of life for many people which, if left unchecked, will eventually create destructive social, environmental and economic situations. It is observed that these problems are occurring, or are likely to occur in other countries in the region.
Thirdly, the paper places emphasis on the importance of understanding user needs, and activities and travel characteristics at the local level. The paper concludes with the identification of the 'window of opportunity' presented by the year 2000 - the new millennium. Actions proposed address the costly and damaging gap between the rhetoric and the reality - focusing particularly on the role that Local Government can play in addressing this challenge.
The Importance of Organisational Commitment in Managing Change in the Bus Industry in Australia
Brewer and Hensher
Abstract: In Australia there is a continuing trend in the transport sector towards corporatisation, privatisation, competitive regulation (ie tendering ) and deregulation. With the implementation of the 1990 Passenger Transport Act in New South Wales, the urban bus industry has moved from a rigid system of licensing towards one of performance-based contracts. The new focus arising out of the legislation has centred on the quality of service delivery with pressing managerial implications. To date, little attention has been paid to the effects of organisational change on the role of middle management in the transport sector. While the current perception may be that the position of middle management is largely irrelevant following industry downsizing, it is contended that the role of the middle manager is reaffirmed at the centre of organisational change. This paper identifies the relationship between perceived satisfaction with the outcomes of change and organisational commitment and structure. Study findings demonstrate that organisational structure is important in the development of organisational commitment which in turn is vital in the effective implementation of organisational change.
The Outsiders: An Essay on Transport Planning Methods
Abstract: This paper examined the concept of transport disadvantage and how people who are defined as such are ill served by commonly used transport planning processes. The notion of mobility and the difference between need demand are examined as are the issues of access and equity especially in reference to transport subsidies. Non-mainstream transport solutions such as paratransit or community transport are explored. Transport planning is examined with criticism of some forms of transport modelling with reference to transport disadvantage. Finally a case is made for public participation in transport planning processes and for transport planning at a local level.


The Influence of Public Acceptance on What IVHS Can Achieve
The Duration Between Traffic Accidents in the Taxi Sector: An Empirical Inquiry
Hamed*, Hensher, Al-Masaeid*
Estimation of an Origin-Destination Trip Matrix from Link Traffic Counts for Large Networks
Zhu, Hensher
Value of Travel Time Savings in Personal and Commercial Automobile Travel
Integrated Bicycle into Applied Models of Urban Transport
Modelling Strategic Alliance Partner Choice in International Airline Networks
Modelling the Demand for Packaged Travel
Economic Evaluation of Road Improvements: A Tourism Perspective
Daniels, Hooper
The Impossible Balance in Sydney
Transport of Delight - The Mythical Conception of Rail Transit in Los Angeles
Problems of Success: Privacy, Property and Transaction. Common Policy Issues Between ITLS and NII Initiatives


Panel Data, Event Histories and Dynamic Choice Modelling: Its Usefulness in Tourism Research
The Timing of Change for Automobile Transactions: A Competing Risk Multispell Specification
Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Urban Passenger Transport Sector
Evaluating Strategies for Packaging Travel
Aviation and Tourism in Nepal: Liberalising Competition in a Less Developed Country
Hooper, Hutcheson*
Park-and-Shop Discounts and Price Bundling
Residential and Household Trends and Issues: Implications for Future Road Transport Needs
Raimond, Hensher
Employment and the Nature of Work: The Impact on Mobility and Road Transport Needs
Hensher, Battellino, Mackay
Walking as a Transport Mode
Digital Spatial Data: Problems of Property, Access, Pricing and Quality
Technology, Pricing and Management Systems Futures of Urban Public Transport
Driver Behaviour of Long Distance Truck Drivers: The Effects of Schedule Compliance on Drug Use and Speeding Citations
Golob, Hensher
Work Trip Characteristics Following The Gulf Crisis: The Experience in Amman, Jordan
Hamed*, Hensher
Revisions and Update: Productivity of Australian Railways 1971/72 to 1991/92
Hensher, Daniels, DeMellow
Measurement and Evaluation of Non-Motorised Transport
Transportation in Low Density Markets: A Role for Public Policy?
The Challenge of Liberalising Airline Competition in a Less Developed Country: The Case of Nepal
Hooper, Hutcheson*, Nyathi
The Economics of Applying IVHS to Public Transport: A Cost Benefit Analysis of the Shellharbour Demand Responsive Bus Trial Project
Raimond, Battellino
Options for Provision of Services for the Transport Disadvantaged
Including the Environmental Impacts of Roads in Project Evaluation and Decision-Making


Hazard-Based Duration Models and Their Application to Transportation Analysis
Hensher, Mannering*
Vehicle Replacement Costing With Age and Budget Constraints
Hensher, Zhu
Economic Reward and On-Road Performance of Long Distance Trucking: An Econometric Assessment
Hensher, Battellino, Daniels
Light Rail and Bus Priority Systems: Choice or Blind Commitment?
Hensher and Waters
An Overview of Pimms: An Areawide Urban Transport Policy Evaluation Model
Hensher, Waters, Zhu, Daniels
Stated Preference Analysis of Travel Choices: The State of Practice
Crew Size Determination for Terminal Queuing Operation of a Bus Route
The Transportation Sector: Economic Issues and Challenges in the Nineties
Trip Frequency Scheduling for Terminal Queuing Bus Routes
Using Total Factor Productivity and Data Envelopment Analysis for Performance Comparisons Among Government Enterprises: Concepts and Issues
Hensher, Waters
The Transport Disadvantaged - Community Transport or Mainstream?
Battellino, Hensher
Approaching an Airline Network Model of Competitive Strategy in International Aviation: A Conceptual Framework
Local Urban Bus Services: Natural Monopoly and Benchmark Contestability
A Review of Recent Bicycle Related Safety Research in Australia
Katz, Smith
A Bounded-Size Likelihood Test for Non-Nested Probabilistic Discrete Choice Models Estimated from Choice-Based Samples
Hensher, Horowitz*, Zhu
Forecasting Tourism Travel on Rural Roads
Bowyer*, Hooper
The Value of Travel Time Savings and the Link with Income: Implications for Public Project Evaluation
Variations in the Value of Travel Time Savings: Empirical Studies and the Values for Road Project Evaluation


Privatisation of Public Transit: Lessons From the Wider Experience
Beesley*, Hensher
Compass Airlines: 1 December 1990 to 20 December 1991
Hensher, Hooper, Nyathi
Transport Planning, Markets and Government: Challenges for the Future
The Use of Discrete Choice Models in the Determination of Community Preferences Towards Sub-Arterial Traffic Management Devices
Hensher, Battellino
Urban Transport Directions: Challenges for Future Research
Safety and Productivity in the Long Distance Trucking Industry
Hensher, Daniels, Battellino
A Comparative Assessment of the Productivity of Australia's Rail Systems 1971/72 - 1990/91
Hensher, Daniels, DeMellow
Approaching a Dynamic Urban Transit Demand Model for Sydney
Altinoglu, Smith
Integrating Revealed Preference and Stated Response Data into a Jointly Estimated Hierarchical Mode Choice Model
The Effects of Public Transport Change in Rural New South Wales
Raimond, Parolin
Selling Travel as Part of a Package. Implications for Transport Research
Socially and Environmentally Appropriate Futures for the Motor Car
Developments in International Civil Aviation: What are Southern Africa's Strategic Options?
Single Aviation Markets and Contestability Theory: Getting the Policy Bearings Right
Estimating the Demand for Packaged Travel for a Proposed High-Speed Surface Transport System Using Stated Response Methods
Patronage Analysis for Electronic Ticketing Systems
Allocating Shared Costs in Financial Models
The Timing of Change: Discrete and Continuous Time Panels in Transportation
Hensher, Raimond
Review of Panel Surveys and Other Longitudinal Techniques. An Annotated Bibliographic Review
Raimond, Hensher


Developments in Surface Passenger Transport. Implications for Tourism
Hensher, Hooper, Smith
The Performance of Ocean Cruising in Australia and Future Prospects
Performance Evaluation in Passenger Transportation: What are Relevant Measures?
The Role of Stated Preferences and Discrete Choice Models in Identifying Community Preferences for Traffic Management Devices
Hensher, Battellino, Gee
The Spatial Distribution of Retail Expenditures: Joint Estimation of a Polychotomous Discrete-Continuous Choice System
Barnard*, Hensher
Privatisation and Deregulation of Passenger Transport: A Summing Up
Beesley*, Hensher, Talvitie*
Total Factor Productivity Growth and Endogenous Demand: Establishing a Benchmark Index for the Selection of Operational Performance Measures in Public Bus Firms