Modelling and Forecasting the Demand for Automobile Petrol in Australia, and its Policy Implications
Petrol is the most important transport fuel and accounts for the largest consumption share among various road transport energies. This thesis presents different econometric modelling systems to estimate the demand for petrol in the Australian road transport sector, emphasizing the effects of national income and petrol price. Quarterly time series data for Australia over the period 1977-2006 are employed to capture the adjustment process associated with responses through time to changes in those factors. Seasonality is also addressed due to the use of quarterly data. Eight modelling systems for petrol demand are used to compare the forecasting performance of different approaches. Then, the best-forecasting model is selected to predict automobile petrol demand in Australia from 2007 through to 2020.
The prediction of a 14-year forecasting horizon shows that Australian automobile petrol consumption will continuously increase under the "business-as-usual" scenario, and increased greenhouse gas emission (primarily CO2) will be produced and emitted into the environment. Effective policy instruments need to be implemented to contain and then reduce the emissions from automobiles. TRESIS, an integrated transport, land use and environmental strategy impact simulation program, is used to estimate the impacts on CO2 of several policy instruments. Given the findings from the evaluation of different policy scenarios, the appropriate strategy is suggested in order to contribute to reducing greenhouse gas emission in Australia.