Operations Management and Econometrics

The Housing Market and the U.S. Business Cycle

Dr James Symons, University College London

26th Feb 2010  11:00 am - Room 498 Merewether Building

We develop a forecasting model of U.S. GDP growth, 1956-2009. Perhaps counter-intuitive to some, we conclude that changes in the real value of tangible assets, comprised mostly of real estate, do not have an important role in forecasting future growth, once one controls for the conventional macroeconomic variables.