Operations Management and Econometrics

Australian Labour Market Dynamics Across the Ages

Dr Natalia Ponomareva, Macquarie University

18th Nov 2011  11:00 am - Room 498, Merewether Building (H04)

Transition probabilities between four labour market states (full-time employment, part-time employment, unemployment and inactive) for three age groups (the young, the middle and the old) are calculated using monthly gross flow data for Australia from October 1997 to September 2010. We determine the responses of the different groups to phases of the business cycle by estimating a small set of unobserved common dynamic factors that drive the transitions of the age groups. We also look at the impulse responses of gross flows to a positive business cycle shock.

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