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Dan Lovallo

Photo of Dan Lovallo


Professor of Business Strategy

Rm 4138
H70 - Abercrombie Building
The University of Sydney
NSW 2006 Australia

Telephone +61 2 9351 5538
Fax +61 2 9036 5378
dan.lovallo@sydney.edu.au

Bio

Dan Lovallo is a Professor of Business Strategy at the University of Sydney and a senior research fellow at the Institute for Business Innovation at the University of California, Berkeley. His research is concerned with psychological aspects of strategic decisions and has appeared in the American Economic Review, Management Science and the Harvard Business Review. He received his PhD from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the Editorial Board for Strategy Science and McKinsey on Finance. 

Selected publications

2018

Journal Articles

Flyvbjerg B, Ansar A, Budzier A, Buhl S, Cantarelli C, Garbuio M, Glenting C, Skamris Holm M, Lovallo D, Lunn D, and et al (2018) Five Things You Should Know about Cost Overrun Transportation Research Part A, In Press.

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, Dong A, Lin N, and Tschang F (2018) Demystifying the Genius of Entrepreneurship: How Design Cognition Can Help Create the Next Generation of Entrepreneurs Academy of Management Learning and Education, 17 (1), 41-61. [More Information]

2017

Journal Articles

Bardolet D, Brown A, and Lovallo D (2017) The Effects of Relative Size, Profitability, and Growth on Corporate Capital Allocations Journal of Management, 43 (8), 2469-2496. [More Information]

Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2017) Does organizational politics kill company growth? Review of International Business and Strategy, 27 (4), 410-433. [More Information]

Sibony O, Lovallo D, and Powell T (2017) Behavioral Strategy and the Strategic Decision Architecture of the Firm California Management Review, 59 (3), 5-21. [More Information]

2016

Journal Articles

Dong A, Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2016) Generative Sensing: A design perspective on the microfoundations of sensing capabilities California Management Review, 58 (4), 97-117. [More Information]

Dong A, Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2016) Generative sensing in design evaluation Design Studies, 45, 68-91. [More Information]

Book Chapter

Dong A, Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2016) Robust Design Review Conversations Analyzing Design Review Conversations; Purdue University Press, West Lafayette, 77-95.

2015

Journal Articles

Dong A, Lovallo D, and Mounarath R (2015) The effect of abductive reasoning on concept selection decisions Design Studies, 37, 37-58. [More Information]

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2015) Evidence Doesn't Argue for Itself: The Value of Disinterested Dialogue in Strategic Decision-Making Long Range Planning, 48 (6), 361-380. [More Information]

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, Porac J, and Dong A (2015) A Design Cognition Perspective on Strategic Option Generation Advances in Strategic Management, 32, 437-465. [More Information]

Book Chapter

Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2015) Design Thinking The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management; Palgrave Macmillan, Melbourne. [More Information]

2014

Journal Article

Smit H, and Lovallo D (2014) Creating more accurate acquisition valuations MIT Sloan Management Review, 56 (1), 63-71.

Book Chapter

Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2014) Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings; Edward Elgar Publishing, London, United Kingdom.

Newspaper Articles

Flyvbjerg B, Lovallo D, and Garbuio M (2014) Better forecasting for large capital projects McKinsey on Finance Number 52, Autumn 2014.

Koller T, Williams Z, and Lovallo D (2014) How to catch those fleeting investment opportunities McKinsey on Finance Number 52, Autumn 2014.

2013

Journal Articles

Brown A, Camerer C, and Lovallo D (2013) Estimating Structural Models of Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchy Thinking in the Field: The Case of Withheld Movie Critic Reviews Management Science, 59 (3), 733-747. [More Information]

Courtney H, Lovallo D, and Clarke C (2013) Deciding how to decide Harvard Business Review (November), 63-70.

Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2013) Early-stage research on decision-making styles The McKinsey Quarterly, 2013 (2), 77.

Book Chapters

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Ketencioglu E (2013) Behavioral Economics and Strategic Decision Making The Oxford Handbook of Managerial Economics; Oxford University Press, New York, United States, 179-200. [More Information]

Lovallo D (2013) The 'Character' and the 'Algorithm': An Essay on Technology and Art Ecologies of Invention; Sydney University Press, Sydney, Australia, 49-54.

2012

Journal Articles

Brown A, Camerer C, and Lovallo D (2012) To Review or to Not Review? Limited Strategic Thinking at the Movie Box Office American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, 4 (2), 1-26. [More Information]

Hall S, and Lovallo D (2012) Breaking strategic inertia: Tips from two leaders The McKinsey Quarterly, 2, 42-46.

Hall S, Lovallo D, and Musters R (2012) How to put your money where your strategy is The McKinsey Quarterly, 2, 27-38.

Koller T, Lovallo D, and Williams Z (2012) Overcoming a bias against risk The McKinsey Quarterly, 4, 15-17.

Lovallo D, Clarke C, and Camerer C (2012) Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case-based decision making Strategic Management Journal, 33 (5), 496-512. [More Information]

Conference Proceeding

Dong A, Mounarath R, and Lovallo D (2012) The Language of Abduction in Choosing Innovation 2nd International Conference on Design Creativity (ICDC); The Design Society, Glasgow UK.

2011

Journal Articles

Bardolet D, Fox C, and Lovallo D (2011) Corporate Capital Allocation: A Behavioral Perspective Strategic Management Journal, 32 (13), 1465-1483. [More Information]

Garbuio M, Wilcox King A, and Lovallo D (2011) Looking Inside: Psychological Influences on Structuring a Firm's Portfolio of Resources Journal of Management, 37 (5), 1444-1463. [More Information]

Kahneman D, Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2011) Coffee, decaffeinated coffee, and tea consumption in relation to incident type 2 diabetes mellitus: A systematic review with meta-analysis Harvard Business Review, 89 (6), 51-60.

Koller T, Lovallo D, and Williams Z (2011) A bias against investment The McKinsey Quarterly, 1, 10-13.

Koller T, Lovallo D, and Williams Z (2011) A bias against investment? The McKinsey Quarterly, September.

Powell T, Lovallo D, and Fox C (2011) Behavioral Strategy Strategic Management Journal, 32 (13), 1369-1386. [More Information]

Conference Proceeding

Mounarath R, Lovallo D, and Dong A (2011) Choosing Innovation: How Reasoning Affects Decision Errors 18th International Conference on Engineering Design, ICED11; The Design Society, Copenhagen, Denmark.

Book Chapters

Ketencioglu E, and Lovallo D (2011) Risk Aversion The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management; Palgrave Macmillan, London, United Kingdom.

Ketencioglu E, and Lovallo D (2011) Hindsight Bias The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management; Palgrave Macmillan, London, United Kingdom.

Ketencioglu E, and Lovallo D (2011) Prisoner’s Dilemma The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management; Palgrave Macmillan, London, United Kingdom.

2010

Journal Articles

Bardolet D, Lovallo D, and Rumelt R (2010) The hand of corporate management in capital allocations: patterns of investment in multi- and single-business firms Industrial and Corporate Change, 19 (2), 591-612. [More Information]

Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2010) The Case for Behavioural Strategy The McKinsey Quarterly, 2010 (2), 30-40.

Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2010) The case for behavioral strategy The McKinsey Quarterly, March.

Book Chapter

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Horn J (2010) Overcoming biases in M&A: A process perspective Advances in Mergers and Acquisitions-Volume 9; Emerald Group Publishing, Bingley United Kingdom, 83-104.

2009

Journal Articles

Flyvbjerg B, Garbuio M, and Lovallo D (2009) Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster California Management Review, 51 (2), 170-193.

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Viguerie P (2009) How companies make good decisions: McKinsey Global Survey Results The McKinsey Quarterly, January.

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Viguerie P (2009) How companies make good decisions The McKinsey Quarterly.

Lovallo D, Niemeyer A, and Simpson B (2009) Freeing up cash from operations The McKinsey Quarterly, 2009 (1), 55-56.

Conference Proceedings

Bardolet D, Fox C, and Lovallo D (2009) Naïve diversification and partition dependence in capital allocation decisions: Field and experimental evidence Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference 2009; Strategic Management Society.

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and King A (2009) A beliefs-preferences-attributions model of strategic decision making Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference 2009; Strategic Management Society.

Lovallo D (2009) Robust Analogizing: From Case to Cases Based Decision Making Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference 2009; Strategic Management Society.

Lovallo D (2009) The Relative Size Effect on Capital Allocations Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference 2009; Strategic Management Society.

2008

Book Chapter

Gary M, Dosi G, and Lovallo D (2008) Boom and Bust Behavior: On the Persistence of Strategic Decision Biases Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making; Oxford University Press, Oxford UK, 33-55.

2007

Journal Articles

Garbuio M, Lovallo D, and Viguerie P (2007) How Companies Spend their Money: McKinsey Global Survey Results The McKinsey Quarterly, June.

Lovallo D (2007) The downturn’s new rules for marketers The McKinsey Quarterly, November.

Lovallo D, and Choi J (2007) Better strategy business units The McKinsey Quarterly, June.

Lovallo D, Viguerie P, Uhlaner R, and Horn J (2007) Deals without Delusions Harvard Business Review, December, 92-101.

2006

Journal Articles

Horn J, Lovallo D, and Viguerie P (2006) Learning to let go: Making better exit decisions The McKinsey Quarterly.

Lovallo D, and Sibony O (2006) Distortions and deceptions in strategic decisions The McKinsey Quarterly, 1.

Powell T, Lovallo D, and Caringal C (2006) Causal Ambiguity, Management Perception, and Firm Performance Academy of Management Review, 31 (1), 175-196.

2005

Journal Article

Horn J, Lovallo D, and Viguerie P (2005) Beating the odds in market entry: How to avoid the cognitive biases that undermine market entry decisions The McKinsey Quarterly.

2004

Journal Articles

Courtney H, and Lovallo D (2004) Bringing Rigor and Reality to Early-Stage R&D Decisions Research Technology Management: international journal of research management, 47.5 (Sept-Oct 2004), 40-45.

Fogel S, Lovallo D, and Caringal C (2004) Loss Aversion for Quality in Consumer Choice Australian Journal of Management, 29 (1), 45-64.

2003

Journal Article

Lovallo D, and Kahneman D (2003) Delusions of Success: How Optimism Undermines Executives Decisions Harvard Business Review, July, 56-63.

Selected grants

2016-2018

2016-2017

2015

2013-2015

Recent Units Taught

  • IBUS3107 Business Negotiations

  • MMGT6001 Strategy and Entrepreneurship

  • SMBA6105 Business Negotiations and Decision Making

Newsroom articles

  • Process Matters More Than Analysis When Making Decisions 20 Oct 2016

    Forbes

    Forbes (US) mentioned research by Professor Dan Lovallo about major business decisions.

  • Why slow thinking wins 26 Jul 2015

    The Boston Globe

    Professor Dan Lovallo was quoted in an article in the Boston Globe about research on the effectiveness of slower and more strategic thinking in business leaders and investors.

See all Newsroom items for Dan Lovallo