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Dan Lovallo

Dan Lovallo


Professor of Business Strategy

Rm 429
H69 - Economics and Business Building
The University of Sydney
NSW 2006 Australia

Telephone +61 2 9351 5538
Fax +61 2 9036 5378
dan.lovallo@sydney.edu.au

Bio

Dan Lovallo is a Professor of Business Strategy at the University of Sydney and a senior research fellow at the Institute for Business Innovation at the University of California, Berkeley. His research is concerned with psychological aspects of strategic decisions and has appeared in the American Economic Review, Management Science and the Harvard Business Review. He received his PhD from the Haas School of Business at the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the Editorial Board for the Strategic Management Journal and the McKinsey Finance.

Publications

2014

2
Book Section/s

Flyvbjerg B, Garbuio M and Lovallo D 2014 'Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster' in Megaproject Planning and Management: Essential Readings, ed. Bent Flyvbjerg, Edward Elgar Publishing, London, United Kingdom

Garbuio M and Lovallo D 2014 Forthcoming 'Design Thinking' in The Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, Palgrave Macmillan

5
Conference Paper/s

Dong A, Garbuio M and Lovallo D 2014 Forthcoming 'Strategic Designerly Review Conversations', 10th Design Thinking Research Symposium, West Lafayette, United States, 15th October 2014

Lovallo D and Kotha R 2014 'In and Partition Dependence Rules in the Field: Evidence from Incentive Allocation in Self-Forming Scientific Teams', Workshop on Behavioral Strategy, New York, United States, 29th April 2014

2013

2
Book Section/s

Garbuio M, Lovallo D and Ketencioglu E 2013 'Behavioral Economics and Strategic Decision Making' in The Oxford Handbook of Managerial Economics, ed. Christopher R. Thomas and William F. Shughart II, Oxford University Press, New York, United States, pp. 179-200

Lovallo D 2013 'The 'Character' and the 'Algorithm': An Essay on Technology and Art' in Ecologies of Invention, ed. Andy Dong, John Conomos and Brad Buckley, Sydney University Press, Sydney, Australia, pp. 49-54

4
Journal Article/s

Brown AL, Camerer CF and Lovallo D 2013 'Estimating Structural Models of Equilibrium and Cognitive Hierarchy Thinking in the Field: The Case of Withheld Movie Critic Reviews', Management Science, vol.59:3, pp. 733-47 Link

5
Conference Paper/s

Kotha R and Lovallo D 2013 'The Efficiency of Simple Rules: Evidence from Heuristic Based Incentive Allocations in Self-Forming Scientific Teams', 33rd Annual Strategic Management Society SMS 2013 Conference – “Strategy and Sustainability”, Atlanta, United States, 1st October 2013

Lovallo D, Bardolet D and Teece D 2013 'Resource Allocation and Dynamic Capabilities', 33rd Annual Strategic Management Society SMS 2013 Conference – “Strategy and Sustainability”, Atlanta, United States, 1st October 2013

Lovallo D and Bardolet D 2013 'Dynamic Capabilities, Resource Allocation and Firm Performance', 73rd Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management, Orlando, United States, 13th August 2013

2012

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D, Hall S and Musters R 2012 'How to put your money where your strategy is', The McKinsey Quarterly, vol.March

Lovallo D, Clarke C and Camerer C 2012 'Robust analogizing and the outside view: two empirical tests of case-based decision making', Strategic Management Journal, vol.33:5, pp. 496-512 Link

Brown AL, Camerer CF and Lovallo D 2012 'To Review or Not to Review? Limited Strategic Thinking at the Movie Box Office', American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, vol.4:2, pp. 1-26 Link

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D, Bardolet D, Rumelt R and Rumelt CR 2012 'From big to small: The relative size effect on corporate capital allocations', Academy of Management Annual Meeting AOM 2012 - “The Informal Economy”, Boston, United States, 7th August 2012

6
Conference Proceeding/s

Dong A, Lovallo D and Mounarath R 2012 'The language of abduction in choosing innovation', 2nd International Conference on Design Creativity ICDC 2012, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom, 20th September 2012

2011

2
Book Section/s

Ketencioglu E and Lovallo D 2011 'Hindsight Bias' in Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, ed. David Teece and Mie Augier, Palgrave

Ketencioglu E and Lovallo D 2011 'Risk Aversion' in Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, ed. David Teece and Mie Augier, Palgrave

Ketencioglu E and Lovallo D 2011 'Prisoner’s Dilemma' in Palgrave Encyclopedia of Strategic Management, ed. David Teece and Mie Augier, Palgrave

4
Journal Article/s

Koller T, Lovallo D and Williams Z 2011 'A bias against investment?', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.September

Garbuio M, King AW and Lovallo D 2011 'Looking Inside: Psychological Influences on Structuring a Firm's Portfolio of Resources', Journal of Management, vol.37:5, pp. 1444-63

Powell T, Lovallo D and Fox C 2011 'Behavioral Strategy', Strategic Management Journal, vol.32:13, pp. 1369–86

Kahneman D, Lovallo D and Sibony O 2011 'The Big Idea: Before You Make That Big Decision...', Harvard Business Review:June, pp. 51-60

Bardolet D, Fox C and Lovallo D 2011 'Corporate Capital Allocation: A Behavioral Perspective', Strategic Management Journal, vol.32:13, pp. 1465–83

5
Conference Paper/s

Garbuio M and Lovallo D 2011 'The under-appreciated role of quality conversations in strategic decision-making', 71st Annual Meeting of the Academy of Management AoM 2011 - "West meets East: Enlightening, Balancing, and Transcending", San Antonio, United States, 16th August 2011

6
Conference Proceeding/s

Mounarath R, Lovallo D and Dong A 2011 'Choosing Innovation: How Reasoning Affects Decision Errors', 18th International Conference on Engineering Design ICED 2011, Copenhagen, Denmark, 18th August 2011

2010

2
Book Section/s

Garbuio M, Lovallo D and Horn J 2010 'Overcoming biases in M&A: A process perspective' in Advances in Mergers and Acquisitions (Volume 9), ed. Sydney Finkelstein and Cary L. Cooper , Emerald Group Publishing Limited, London, United Kingdom, pp. 83-104

4
Journal Article/s

Bardolet D, Lovallo D and Rumelt R 2010 'The hand of corporate management in capital allocations: patterns of investment in multi- and single-business firms', Industrial and Corporate Change, vol.19:2, pp. 591-612

Lovallo D and Sibony O 2010 'The case for behavioral strategy', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.March

11
Seminar Paper/s

Lovallo D 2010 'How to take an outside view, Powered by Research Breakfast Series – “Risky Business: The Psychology of Strategy in Uncertain Times”: Corporate Breakfast Seminar Series, The University of Sydney, Australia, 23 April 2010

2009

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D, Niemeyer A and Simpson B 2009 'Freeing up cash from operations', McKinsey Quarterly:1

Flyvbjerg B, Garbuio M and Lovallo D 2009 'Delusion and Deception in Large Infrastructure Projects: Two Models for Explaining and Preventing Executive Disaster', California Management Review, vol.51:2, pp. 170-93

Garbuio M, Lovallo D and Viguerie P 2009 'How companies make good decisions: McKinsey Global Survey Results', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.January

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 2009 'Naive diversification and partition dependence in capital allocation: Field and Experimental Evidence', Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference, Washington DC, United States, 14th October 2009

Lovallo D 2009 'Robust Analogizing: From Case to Cases Based Decision Making', Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference, Washington DC, United States, 14th October 2009

Lovallo D 2009 'The Relative Size Effect on Capital Allocations', Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference, Washington DC, United States, 14th October 2009

Garbuio M, Lovallo D and King AW 2009 'A beliefs-preferences-attributions model of strategic decision making', Strategic Management Society SMS 29th Annual International Conference, Washington D.C., United States, 14th October 2009

2008

2
Book Section/s

Lovallo D, Gary S and Dosi G 2008 'Boom and Bust Behavior: On the persistence of Strategic Decision Biases' in Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making, ed. Gerard Hodgkinson and Bill Starbuck, Oxford University Press, Oxford , United Kingdom

2007

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D, Viguerie P, Uhlaner R and Horn J 2007 'Deals without Delusions', Harvard Business Review, vol.December

Garbuio M, Lovallo D and Viguerie P 2007 'How Companies Spend their Money: McKinsey Global Survey Results', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.June

Lovallo D 2007 'The downturn’s new rules for marketers', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.November

Lovallo D and Choi J 2007 'Better strategy business units', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.June

2006

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D and Sibony O 2006 'Distortions and deceptions in strategic decisions', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.1

Lovallo D, Horn J and Viguerie P 2006 'Learning to let go: Making better exit decisions', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.November

Lovallo D, Powell T and Caringa C 2006 'Causal Ambiguity, Managerial Perceptions, and Firm Performance', Academy of Management Review

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 2006 'Learning from others mistakes', Bay Area Chief Strategy Officers Roundtable, San Francisco, United States, 1st January 2006-31st December 2006

Lovallo D 2006 'Strategic Decision Making and Cognitive Biases', AGSM Annual Conference, Sydney, Australia, 1st - 31st October 2006

Lovallo D 2006 'Safer Passage Through the M & A minefield', Corporate Finance Global Conference, McKinsey & Co, Los Angeles C.A., United States, 1st - 28th February 2006

2005

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D, Horn J and Viguerie P 2005 'Beating the odds in market entry: How to avoid the cognitive biases that undermine market entry decisions', McKinsey Quarterly, vol.November-4

2004

4
Journal Article/s

Fogel S, Lovallo D and Clarke C 2004 'Loss Aversion for Quality in Consumer Choice', Australian Journal of Management, vol.29:1, pp. 45-64

Lovallo D and Courtney H 2004 'Bringing Rigor and Reality to early stage R&D Decisions', Research Technology Management, vol.June

2003

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 2003 'Strategic Delusions: How Optimism Undermines Executives Decisions', Harvard Business Review

2002

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 2002 'Ambiguity and Firm Performance', Strategic Management Society, Paris, France, 1st - 31st October 2002

2000

2
Book Section/s

Lovallo D and Camerer C 2000 'Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach' in Choices Values, and Frame, ed. Kahneman and Tversky, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 2000 'Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking' in Choices Values, and Frames, ed. Kahneman and Tversky, Cambridge University Press

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 2000 'Living with Uncertainty: Attractiveness and Resolution Timing', Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, vol.13:2, pp. 179-90

1999

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D and Camerer C 1999 'Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach', American Economic Review, vol.89:1, pp. 306-18

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 1999 'Reference Group Neglect in Market Entry Decisions and Tournaments', Fuqua School of Business, Duke University, Durham, NC, United States, 1st - 28th February 1999

1997

2
Book Section/s

Lovallo D and Dosi G 1997 'Rational Entrepreneurs or Optimistic Martyrs? Some Considerations on Technological Regimes, Corporate Entries, and the Evolutionary Role of Decision Biases' in Technological Innovation: Oversights and Foresights, ed. Garud , Nayyar and Shapira, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 1997 'Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach', Economic Science Association Meetings, Tuscon, AZ, United States, 1st - 31st August 1997

1996

2
Book Section/s

Lovallo D 1996 'Behavioral Decision Research and the Firm' in Organization and Strategy in the Evolution of the Enterprise, ed. Dosi and Malerba, MacMillan Press

7
Thesis

Lovallo D 1996 'Essays on the Psychology of Competition', UMI

1994

2
Book Section/s

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 1994 'Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking' in Fundamental Issues in Strategy: A Research Agenda, ed. Rumelt, Schendel, Teece, Harvard Business School Press

1993

4
Journal Article/s

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 1993 'Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking', Management Science, vol.39:1, pp. 17-31

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 1993 'New Insights from Behavioral Psychology', RAND Conference on Decision Modeling, Santa Monica, CA, United States, 1st - 31st March 1993

1991

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D 1991 'Behavioral Decision Research and the Firm', 4th Annual ASSI Foundation Conference on the History of Enterprise, Milan, Italy, 1st - 31st October 1991

1990

5
Conference Paper/s

Lovallo D and Kahneman D 1990 'Timid Choices and Bold Forecasts: A Cognitive Perspective on Risk Taking', Fundamental Issues in Strategy: A Research Agenda, Silverado, CA, United States, 1st - 30th November 1990

Research Grants

2013-2015

Behavioural strategies for selecting innovation projects

When financing new innovations, everyone wants to back a potential winner. However, not spotting a winning project and letting opportunity to innovate pass, has significant negative consequences. This project will analyse how design thinking by senior executives and investors can boost innovation by not rejecting a good project.

ARC Discovery Project

See all Business School Grants

Recent Units Taught