Forecasting for Economics and Business (ECMT3130)

UNIT OF STUDY

The need to forecast or predict future values of economic time series arises frequently in many branches of applied economic and commercial work. It is, moreover, a topic which lends itself naturally to econometric and statistical treatment. The specific feature which distinguishes time series from other data is that the order in which the sample is recorded is of relevance. As a result of this, a substantial body of statistical methodology has developed. This unit provides an introduction to methods of time series analysis and forecasting. The material covered is primarily time domain methods designed for a single series and includes the building of linear time series models, the theory and practice of univariate forecasting and the use of regression methods for forecasting. Throughout the unit a balance between theory and practical application is maintained.

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Further unit of study information

Classes

2x1-hr lectures/week, 1x1-hr lab/week

Assessment

assignment (20%), group assignment (25%), mid-semester test (20%) and 2.5hr final exam (35%)

Faculty/department permission required?

No

Unit of study rules

Prerequisites and assumed knowledge

ECMT2110 or ECMT2010 or (ECMT2150 and ECMT2160)

Prohibitions

ECMT3030

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Cross-institutional study

If you are from another Australian tertiary institution you may be permitted to underake cross-institutional study in one or more units of study at the University of Sydney.

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