Seminar - Hao Zhang - Interval estimate of structural reliability

Wednesday 12 May 2010, 4.00 pm - 5.00 pm
Civil Engineering Lecture Theatre 3

Dr Hao Zhang
School of Civil Engineering
University of Sydney

Abstract:
Statistical parameters of probability models in structural reliability assessment often cannot be determined precisely due to limited sample of data. Uncertainties in parameter estimates can be modeled using the confidence interval approach. Reliability analysis needs to consider families of distributions whose parameters are within the intervals. Consequently, the probability of failure will vary in an interval itself. To estimate the interval failure probability, an interval Monte Carlo method has been proposed which combines simulation process with the interval analysis. Examples are presented to compare the interval estimates of structural failure probability obtained from the proposed method and the conventional Bayesian approach.