In recent decades, anthropogenic disasters such as climate change are increasingly adding to natural disasters, both impacting on increasing numbers of people and assets of built infrastructure, resulting in increasing loss of lives and damage cost. It is therefore important to understand the impacts of disasters before they strike and the vulnerability of certain sectors of the economy, enabling us to take precautionary measures to protect people and minimise damage. Disaster analysis has become a powerful tool for assessing potential economic losses, and in particular for preparing recovery plans and developing scenarios for building resilience into the economy. This unit will provide an introduction to the field of disaster analysis, with particular emphasis on simulating and quantifying the effects of a disaster on an economy, both directly and indirectly as a result of cascading disruptions of supply chains. The aim of the unit is to equip students with an understanding of the quantitative approaches underlying the field of disaster analysis, and their importance for complementing humanitarian engineering and for planning resilient economies. In particular, students will study the technique of disaster input-output analysis and undertake hands-on exercises, modeling disasters and shocks at regional, national and global scales. This unit of study will explore the many applications of disaster modelling in assessing the impacts of floods, droughts, diseases, and a collapse of animal and plant populations.
1x1.5hr lecture and 1x1hr tutorial per week
written essay, oral presentation, comprehensive notes from lectures and tutorials
Comprehensive reference lists will be distributed to students each week.