This introductory unit on decision analysis addresses the formal methods of decision making. These methods include measuring risk by subjective probabilities; growing decision trees; performing sensitivity analysis; using theoretical probability distributions; simulation of uncertain events; modelling risk attitudes; estimating the value of information; and combining quantitative and qualitative considerations. The primary goal of the unit is to demonstrate how to build models of real business situations that allow the decision maker to better understand the structure of decisions and to automate the decision process by using computer decision tools.
1 x 2hr lecture and 1 x 1hr tutorial per week
assignment 1 (10%), assignment 2 (10%), mid-semester exam (30%), final exam (50%)
BUSS1020 or DATA1001 or ECMT1010 or ENVX1001 or ENVX1002 or STAT1021 or ((MATH1005 or MATH1015) and MATH1115) or 6 credit points of MATH units which must include MATH1905.Prohibitions
QBUS2320 or ECMT2630 or ENGG1850 or CIVL3805