'Political nepo babies': The global rise and consequences

From Canada’s Justin Trudeau to George W. Bush in the United States, to Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr in the Philippines, or the recently ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of Bangladesh, it is one of the most common—but underappreciated—features of democracy worldwide. Dr James Loxton argues the practice of hereditary democracy has significant implications for both the political landscape and voter expectations.

The study finds hereditary rule undermines the democratic process, but it has facilitated the rise of women leaders.

Researched by Dr Loxton, from the School of Social and Political Sciences, the study introduces the concept of hereditary democracy and reveals its global prevalence.

Key Findings

·       Hereditary democracies today outnumber hereditary autocracies. In 2024, heads of government with parents who were also heads of government are more prevalent in democracies than in autocratic countries.

·       The article condemns hereditary democracy, highlighting its fundamental unfairness and detrimental impact on the political system.

·       By limiting political office to those with family connections in politics, hereditary democracy makes it more likely that mediocre leaders will rise to power.

·       When voters elect relatives of prominent politicians, they often assume similarities in leadership style or policy positions. However, elected heirs may diverge significantly from their predecessors, leading to disappointed voter expectations and poor representation.

·       The study underscores the fundamental unfairness of hereditary democracy. Nepotism is wrong in politics, just as it is in the workplace.

·       Despite its harms, the study notes that hereditary democracy has facilitated the rise of women leaders in countries including India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Indonesia—often decades before their Western counterparts.

The study examined the prevalence of hereditary democracy by analysing democratically elected heads of government who were children, spouses, or siblings of former heads of government in countries with sustained democratic periods between 1945 and 2010. The results showed 36 of 89 democracies (40 percent) have such leaders.

As of June 2024, eleven of the world's democracies have heads of government whose fathers or husbands were heads of government before them: Canada, Estonia, Greece, Guatemala, Honduras, Mauritius, Nauru, the Philippines, Samoa, São Tomé and Príncipe, and Uruguay.

To explain hereditary democracy, the study developed a framework examining factors including the sway of party elites and the preferences of the voting masses, all of which contribute to an inherited incumbency advantage.

The study argues against hereditary democracy, emphasising its undermining of the basic principles of fairness. Dr Loxton said it should not be accepted as a norm and urged policymakers, political parties, and the public to recognise the inherent flaws of hereditary democracy.

“Given the option of voting for anyone they like, they cast their ballots for the children, spouses, or other close relatives of those who have already held office.

“For instance, in the United States, George W. Bush followed in the presidential footsteps of his father, George H. W. Bush, just as John Quincy Adams did with his father, John Adams, nearly two centuries earlier.

“In India, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty provided the country with its prime ministers for all but four of its first 42 years of independence.”

While we often think of hereditary politics as being confined to monarchies or dictatorships, it is at least as common in democracies . As Dr Loxton puts it: “The Trudeaus of the world are more numerous than the Assads. Excluding absolute monarchs, there are currently more democratically elected heads of government whose fathers were heads of government before them than autocratic heads of government for which the same is true.”

The most common democratic succession is from father to child, such as Justin Trudeau in Canada, George W. Bush in the United States, and the multi-generation Nehru-Gandhi dynasty in India. Spouse-to-spouse transfers are also common; the current president of Honduras Xiomara Castro de Zelaya is the wife of its former president. In Thailand, power was transferred from brother to sister.

Dr Loxton comments on their lack of formal, as opposed to informal, qualifications in most cases. To highlight the strangeness of the phenomenon, he asks us to carry out a thought experiment: “Would we agree to open-heart surgery from the son of a famous surgeon if that son had never even been to medical school? The question is absurd—and yet this is precisely the logic that many voters seem to follow when choosing their leaders.”

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