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What’s driving five-year movement itch in regional Australia?

2 September 2024

Study examines key factors for regional growth

Enhancing liveability factors, including housing, health, education and infrastructure, is key to growing regional centres and retaining their population, according to new research led by the University of Sydney's School of Architecture, Design and Planning. The research investigated population change across Australia along with push and pull factors within three local government hotspots representing different opportunities for lifestyle and employability - Port Macquarie Hastings, Ballarat and Broken Hill.

Key points:

Regional cities with higher numbers of graduates in the workforce and increased lifestyle activity grew faster
Proximity to the coast, major metropolitan areas, and the availability of air services, positively influenced growth
Cheaper housing was a common attraction across all three local government areas (LGAs)
Respondents highlighted 'lifestyle', 'personal reasons', and 'employment' as the top factors influencing their decision to relocate
Respondents however were more likely to move again within five years due to gaps in health and education services, unaffordable housing or lack of rental availability, crime rates, and climate
Survey respondents indicated a preference to move to other regional cities (46 percent) over capital cities (30 percent), countering the broader urbanisation trend in Australia.

The nations obsession with regional Australia continues, finds research led by the Sydney School of Architecture, Design and Planning. Undertaken for the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute (AHURI), The paper ‘Place-based drivers and effective management of population growth and change in regional Australia’ reveals the factors and trends influencing population change across regional Australia.

While people may move to regional cities for work, lifestyle, housing, or personal reasons, the research shows many will leave if liveability factors, such as education opportunities, transport, childcare, and healthcare are not accessible enough.

Dr Greta Werner, study co-author

The study highlights the critical importance of aligning policy responses with population changes to effectively manage regional growth.

Despite the strong appeal of these regional areas, the potential for population turnover remains high. Survey data revealed that 44 percent of respondents in Broken Hill, 35 percent in Ballarat, and 30 percent in Port Macquarie Hastings are likely to move within the next five years.

Interviews revealed that inadequate secondary and tertiary education, limited health and disability services, crime rates, climate concerns, and rising housing costs were significant reasons for leaving these areas.

To foster population growth and retention, policies aimed at enhancing liveability are critical. These include improving housing affordability and availability, bolstering local health and education services, upgrading local transport, water and road infrastructure, and increasing funding for regional airports, and tertiary campuses.

"Both federal, state and local governments have a role to play in improving liveability and working with the community and industry to provide improved services that encourage thriving populations in regional centres," said Dr Werner.

Potential policy solutions include limiting short-term rental accommodations (STRA), increasing government support for social and affordable housing, and attracting trade workers to boost housing construction.

A significant challenge in keeping pace with population change is the complexity of addressing areas that involve multiple public and private sector entities beyond local government control such as health, housing, transport, and education, underscoring the need for cooperation between all levels of government, as well as industry.

Over the past five years, the appeal of more affordable housing and an enhanced lifestyle has been the major driver for people moving from metropolitan to regional areas while higher regional housing prices discourage that movement.

"While some people move to regional cities for housing and rental affordability, it can also prompt existing residents to leave if prices in those regions rise as a result. Housing solutions for key workers are as important in regional centres as they are in metropolitan regions," said Dr Werner.

These findings underscore the importance of place-based attributes in influencing growth, decline, and population turnover in regional cities. Supporting the development of local businesses, especially in sectors like tourism, hospitality, tertiary education, and renewable energy, could attract new residents, retain local youth, and diversify regional economies.

“Employment remains a crucial driver for migration to regional Australia, making policies that foster economic growth and local job creation vital for sustaining and expanding regional populations,” said Dr Werner.

The study was authored by Dr Caitlin Buckle, Dr Greta Werner, Professor Nicole Gurran, Dr Glen Searle, Associate Professor Somwrita Sarkar, Associate Professor Nick Osbaldiston and Durba Kundu.