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Operations Management and Econometrics

Best Guess and Learning Models

Professor Stephen G Walker, University of Kent, UK

1st Apr 2011  11:00 am - Room 498, Merewether Building

It is to be argued that Bayesian methods are a combination of making best guesses and learning. For this idea to be formulated it is necessary to fully understand what a Bayesian believes she is learning about and what she is making guesses about. This talk will present a framework in which best guesses are revised via a learning process based on observations. Illustrations involving model selection will be presented.