2022 federal election series: Part 1

Fran Kelly 

Thank you very much, Lisa, and welcome, everybody. It's terrific to have such a turnout tonight in the midst of this campaign. And before we go any further, I too would like to pay my respects to the traditional owners of the land on which we gather. Well, here we are almost halfway through this six week election campaign. It's quite a long time. I don't know how it's feeling to you. So three weeks in how much wiser? Are we about the competing visions of the major parties? And are they actually offering much vision at all so far? To reflect on what we've learned to this point and where the campaign goes from here, I'd like to introduce you to our panel this evening. Duncan Ivison is professor of political philosophy, and was just until this month Deputy Vice Chancellor of Research at the University of Sydney for the past six and a half years or so. Anika Gauja is professor of politics here at Sydney University. Welcome. Elizabeth Hill is Associate Professor of the Department of Political Economy and Deputy Director of the gender equality in working life initiative. Kishor Napier-Raman is a federal politics reporter at crikey, former editor of Sydney unis newspaper on honi soit. And of course, Antony Green knows no introduction. He's the ABCs election analyst. We like to call him Mr. Election around the ABC, but he is also adjunct professor at Sydney Uni. So welcome all of you. Could you please welcome the panel? And just to let you know, we will, there will be a little bit of time at the end of this hour or so for questions from you. We've got some roving mics. But if you prefer to send it in on slider, your question, I'll be checking them or if you're if you're watching this online, follow the questions in through slider. Again, thank you, all of you for joining us. I want to start with a question to each of our panellists. I'll start with you, Duncan. And I'll just go around the grounds here. In one sentence, what's your impression of this election campaign so far? And I mean it in one sentence? Yeah yeah, says the professor

Duncan Ivison 

never ask a philosopher for one sentence. So I think it's a war of attrition sort of devoid really of any serious debate about vision and ideas.

Fran Kelly 

Okay, Liz, well done Duncan.

Elizabeth Hill 

Well, I'm disappointed that what should have been a care election has turned into a khaki election. Oh, and a bit surprised that three weeks in, we haven't seen the ALP pushing their childcare plan, which is a key cost of living issue and a critical piece of economic reform that could really push the coalition to you know, raise that you know, to meet their their standard.

Fran Kelly 

Okay, bit of a zinger there from Liz. Thank you, Liz. And actually, they did look, they did do a launch on childcare today. But was it high profile? No, it wasn't Kish.

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Well, I'm kind of bit bored. But you guys are clearly excited enough to be here to hear us talk about it. I will say though, look, it's felt like a disjointed vision free and at times, quite unedifying scrapped so far. Okay.

Fran Kelly 

Vision free, boring and unedifying? Anika?

Anika Gauja 

Too bloody long,

Antony Green 

 I was just gonna say interminable.

Fran Kelly 

Okay, great. So we're getting the vibe. Okay, we've got the vibe, Antony. There is no election coverage in my mind without you. So before we go any further, I want to ask you as a very close watcher of election campaigns for a long time now, is there anything different that you're seeing about this election campaign, anything that marks it from previous campaigns?

Antony Green 

Well, I think we're seeing an increasingly I mean, each election is a bit further down that track of not being really about setpiece debates about policy. More and more, more and more campaigning is about messaging rather than policy. And so you're seeing phrases of the day and there's more and more of that occurring. And I think it's just it's quite extraordinary to watch. Sometimes it makes it very difficult to actually cover an election campaign if it comes down to such short grabs on stuff.

Fran Kelly 

Yeah, yeah. And I guess we'll be discussing, so you wonder whether people bother to tune in for that. Really, Antony, let's clear up this at the beginning. We got a question from someone in the audience earlier about polling. We're all obviously felt completely misled by the polls in 2019. And most of the polls have acknowledged they got it wrong. Is the polling there have been changes to the methodology? Do you have a sense of whether the polling is more accurate this time around? Can we have a sense of that? And how much can it tell us before all of us

Antony Green 

say more accurate, more accurate, we can only know that afterwards. They put a lot of effort into improving it. But we won't know if they've done enough and whether it's accurate until afterwards,

Fran Kelly 

well, from your sense of their what they have done their changes To the methodology, do we have can we have any faith? That is a better method?

Antony Green 

No, because the simple the simple problem they have in the United States, they cannot get Trump supporters to answer polls. But that's what's gone wrong with polling. Remember, polling doesn't always work. If you went to Europe, until about the 1980s, opinion polls were basically unknown on the continent, you couldn't do an opinion poll, people wouldn't tell you how they voted. They'd lived through two world wars, fascism, you know, that sort of stuff. They wouldn't tell you who they voted for. I think there's some people in study and I will not tell you who they vote for now, I don't think that's as big a problem here

Fran Kelly 

In the age of social media, people tell you everything about their lives all the time. So what what the hell

Antony Green 

I think I think that's, that's why we have to assess it afterwards.

Fran Kelly 

And just before I move to the general discussion, we know this selection will not be one on a national swing anyway. So what are the polls telling us it'll be one in a small number of seats, seats in a smaller number of states? Can we can we now find out anything much from perhaps the leaders movement so far, about which states this will be won or lost in? Are you clear on that,

Antony Green 

ah, it will be the government to hold office has to hold its seats in Queensland and Western Australia. If it loses seats, it has to win seats in other states is a very narrow path to to victory. But I said that last time as well. But it's even harder this time, particularly with the way Western Australia has turned in the last few years, I'd say I think there's a bit of an over concentration on individual seats. The seat while you don't get a national swing in that way, the swing is relatively uniform in each state, they didn't win the last election with individual seats in Queensland, they won it with a four and a half percent swing. So I think there's a tendency to

Fran Kelly 

Yeah but that four and a half percent swing was not the swing in every state. I mean the swing in Queensland

Antony Green 

I mean, that's what I mean, is that it's a state that the swings are distributed around the state swing, and they're not distributed around the national swing. So that's why the first thing to watch for election night is what's happening in Queensland, Western Australia can't be the first thing in Western Australia, of course, because their two hours behind. But you'll see a now you'll see a reliable swing their New South Wales is a bit both ways. And then you, you may get a significant swing in Victoria, but it doesn't deliver any seats. So there's a bit of a peculiarity around the country.

Fran Kelly 

Alright. So in other words, we will have to stay tuned to you, glued to the set on Saturday, May the 21st. Let's talk about what is happening in this campaign, and this week. Very, it's very much about the economy. Now, the economy is always pretty much central to election campaigns. This week, though, we got that inflation figure of 5.1% Kish as the sort of put generalists completely enmeshed in everything at the moment through this, that that, you know, highest inflation number in 20 years, sent a bit of a shock, I think through the campaign bunkers, particularly of the election, Josh Frydenberg really couldn't hide his shock. I think at that election campaign, both sides started off, though with an economic message. Who do you think that high inflation rate and potentially, the impact of that on rates works for or against?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Well look at can't be good news for a government that has sort of pinned a lot of it's sort of its chances of reelection on being the kind of steady hand of economic management, you know, the coalition, I think, would have initially wanted this to be a debate about the handling of the economy, because there is this sort of, I guess, it's a bit of a meme around in Australian politics that the current coalition has superior economic managers. But that being said, this is a an inflation rate we haven't seen for two decades, you know, and those cost of living pressures, this isn't just purely an academic thing. This is something that people are feeling at the petrol pump every day. It's something that feeling every time they go to kind of, you know, buy their groceries and stuff like that. And that's something that really affects how people vote. So, you know, a big part of the coalition strategy to get reelected was look, compared to the rest of the world. Unemployment is, you know, our economy's doing okay. The COVID situations, okay, we're here, we might not be the most popular party around you might not like Scott Morrison's vibe, but hold your nose stick with the devil, you know, it gets a little bit harder for them to make that pitch when you've got this historically high inflation rate. And when if the RBA does what's expected and pushes up cash rate next week, you know, the last time that happened was two weeks out before John Howard lost government in 2007. And that, you know, there's some, I guess, some symmetry to that isn't there?

Fran Kelly 

But do you think that the, the Prime Minister holding up that graph saying look at the inflation rate in New Zealand, look at it and Canada, look where we are, how great a way, and that international comparison that's being made across a whole number of areas? Do you think that is persuasive to the voters?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Well, it might be persuasive to some because, you know, you persuaded? Well, you know, I'm not going to tell you how I vote. But look, at the end of the day, people aren't persuaded by graphs, right? They're not persuaded by the rest of the world. They're persuaded by their own sort of personal experience. So look, even if it is worse than the rest To the world when suddenly go, and petrol is a price it's not been in years. That's what you're really thinking. That's what you're feeling. And that's how kind of I think regular people will probably be weighing up when they go to the ballot box.

Fran Kelly 

Well, I think Anika a lot of regular people will be panicking right about now I think about interest rate rise a lot is 60% of mortgage holders are variable interest rates. So things are going to go up. Do you think that changes the game in any way? In which way?

Anika Gauja 

Yes, I do. I think it changes the game, because it takes the election campaign out of the control of the two major parties. So it's an event that punctuates the campaign that they haven't, because the Reserve Bank Board is independent, that's completely independent, and it will lift or not lift interest rates, according to its own decision next week, so  it affects the campaign in that way. And it negatively affects the government as Kishor mentioned, we have precedent for this. This happened in 2007, just before John Howard lost government and it affects them also, because we see the Liberal Party is the party that's traditionally associated with economic management. And even before the interest rate rise was an issue, I think the Liberal Party was on very shaky ground. With that with the cost of living pressures that were cited, also with, you know, just to sort of also draw a parallel with national security as a another element of debate that really privileges government's National Security was invoked very, very early on in the campaign as something that the government has lost control over to in the agenda. And the pandemic. We haven't seen the pandemic, really eventuate so far in the campaign. But I think, you know, that's been kept off the table, because, again, the government's record in management of that issue, as a sort of a domestic security issue, and a health issue hasn't been fantastic.

Fran Kelly 

Duncan, the government's answer to why will people not count them down for an interest rate rise inflation hike is because people understand that there's these very factors, these global factors, like a pandemic, like a war in Ukraine, that are driving up the prices, so they won't count the government down on that.

Duncan Ivison 

Yeah, look, I mean, I, you know, it was a Tip O'Neill famously said, you know, all politics is local. And I think, at some level, it's going to be, as he said, what people are encountering, you know, in their daily lives, in the shops, at the schools, how it's impacting their families, it's going to dominate a lot of the political campaigning. I think the really interesting thing, though, from my perspective, is the government's sense of ownership of responsibility for managing these global issues and how well they're able to, in a sense, frame those issues as a matter of trust. And as a matter of being aligned with the values that the government is trying to sort of promote to the population. I think, like Anika, I feel like the Prime Minister is sort of losing the ability to control that agenda in a way that he probably thought was a strength to begin with. Right. And I think that's something that I just felt it switched this week a bit.

Fran Kelly 

Liz, I've seen polling, you know, came out not long after the budget that I saw the suggested women in out of suburban seats are more focused on cost of living, and were most impressed by the cost of living measures in the Frydenberg budget. You know, the $250 checks arrived this week for people. How do you see the cost of living affecting the women's vote? And does it even make sense for us to think of such a thing? As the women's vote? Yeah, especially when we're talking about cost of living?

Elizabeth Hill 

Yep. Look, I think, look, what we learned from the last election and from our colleague, Sarah Cameron's work on the Australian election survey is that Australian women are increasingly voting for Labour and the Greens, right. So you think after the couple of years we've had just in terms of the pandemic in of disrespect, and the failure, the abject failure of that coalition to manage that at all. And the fact that Australian women lost more jobs and hours than Australian men, even though we've bounced back to historic highs in participation rates, you would think that that trend is going to continue. But I think the thing that cautions me is that in the 2019 election, the ALP took to the Australian public, a really comprehensive set of policies that the research evidence would suggest was going to really shift the dial on gender equality. And what did Australian women do, well, 37% of them voted for Labour and the rest didn't. So I think it's really hard to read the women's vote. Cost of Living pressures I think always play pretty strong for household managers. We know that women are predominantly the ones that are doing most of the kind of household management so they're very attentive to these and this is why I think issues like childcare could really cut through and shift that that that debate

Fran Kelly 

Okay so, you're opening big comment about you're hoping for a care election we're getting a Khaki one. Well labours slogan is all about care. Yes, Medicare aged care, child care, labour case.

Elizabeth Hill 

So what like they need to be shouting that out. I mean, I think the, you know, Australian women,

Fran Kelly 

but does that, as you say that doesn't necessarily trump the hip pocket. It's not. It's a

Elizabeth Hill 

complex interplay, right. But if they're actually serious about those, those policies, and they can get them out and really talk about them in clear detail, that's going to change, like their commitment to paid paid wages for aged care workers, their childcare plan, all these things could really lift the wages of highly feminised care workers, that is at a cost of living issue, right? Because the piece that wasn't talked about in this cost of living in the kind of interest rate and inflation rate debate is that that that plays out, there's a three prongs to that problem, wages, inflation, and an interest rates and wages have been flat for a decade. And so we've got these policies that could see some uplift, where, you know, it's going to moderate concerns around inflation and interest rates.

Fran Kelly 

Okay. Duncan's scare campaigns, they emerge very early in this campaign. You we're all used to them. But they really to come out in week two surprised me. The fact that they're coming out, and they're all the ones we've heard before. Also surprise me. But then, I mean, it's a surprise, I suppose, party strategists are adamant that scare campaigns work. And voters are driven more by fear than inducements than positive offerings. Do you think that's true? And if it is, does it come at a cost?

Duncan Ivison 

Look, it's a self fulfilling prophecy in parts. So it's, I mean, it is something that people say, well, it works. That's why it happens. I mean, you know, my dad used to say, you get the politicians you deserve. Right. And there is something, I think profound about that. And I think we have to ask ourselves, are we asking enough of our politicians and enough of our parties, it's very easy for us to complain, as I did, about the lack of vision about the lack of genuine conscious of ideas about often the contradictory impulse that we have towards, we want to debate about ideas, but the minute a politician says something slightly edgy or controversial, wham, they get hammered. And, and, and, you know, the media and, and the, the posters are responding to something they see in the culture. So I think it's a real problem for our political system as a whole. And

Fran Kelly 

I suppose we've seen that writ large, haven't we, with the trans women debate around the Waringah candidate, the captain?

Duncan Ivison 

Absolutely, absolutely. So there's a sense in which that's a genuinely important serious issue. There's a shift, profound shift in our culture around gender and sexuality. And it's complex, and it's complex. It requires nuance, it requires debate, there are genuine debates to be had. And yet we seem to be incapable of having them. I mean, let alone debates about climate, like, where's climate in this election right now, it is an existential threat to the planet. And yet we have, you know, technology, not taxes, and a kind of, you know, a kind of race to the bottom from the other side of politics to make sure they don't scare the horses. So I think there's something about populism right now that our system has to grapple with populism has a dirty, sort of, it's a dirty word, but we need to find a way to engage people about these complex issues that do scare them. But we shouldn't be indulging in that fear. And that I think, is one of the big questions for liberal democracies as a whole. Right?

Fran Kelly 

Okay. But the we is all of us, we will come back and talk more about climate too. Don't worry about that. But Anika I mean, you know, obviously true the most campaigns, campaigns you have the less room there is for policy debate. Will voters notice? Do they care? I mean, we are the voters are the we are we're all responsible for this? Yeah.

Anika Gauja 

Well, I mean, I think that parties use scare campaigns, because they are effective in a campaign because they expose two things they expose the parties to vulnerability in terms of policy detail, and policy complexity. And Australian political debates and campaigns. And this one is no exception, are not good at articulating policies and having complex debates over policy. And part of that is cultural. Part of that is also you know, isolating Australia is a very interesting comparative example is we're a democracy where our political parties before elections aren't compelled or required, and they don't release policy manifestos in Europe, in the UK, in Canada. All the parties have got really detailed policy manifestos and that sort of forms the basis for a much more robust discussion around policy issues and elections. It doesn't eliminate scare campaigns, but it certainly allows the parties and the voters to talk about some of the detail behind that.

Fran Kelly 

Well, I think if you ask Bill Shorten he'd say not only does it not eliminates campaigns it opens them up. I mean, he did have a significant labour at that going to significant policy manifestor

Anika Gauja 

but if liberal had the same, then it would be a more even playing field. Okay, use

Fran Kelly 

a net one as well. Yeah, indeed. Kishor, you drill down I know into these scare campaigns and scare campaigns of the past. What did you unearth in terms of why the party's resorted to them so early?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

I mean, we've talked about them they work, right. Like they're really, really effective. If you look at the last two elections, the scare campaigns have played a huge part in 2016. You know, Labour sort of winked about the libs, destroying Medicare, and that was played a huge part in Bill shorten really overperforming or pushing the government to the brink, you know, the last election. I mean, there was so many of this one about labour bringing in a death tax, or retirement tax, that it was going to destroy coal mines, and a lot of that stuff, you know, it wasn't necessarily megaphone from the leaders. It wasn't even necessarily, you know, driven by the media as well, it just often operating this kind of like sub optimal space, those salts and space through social media, it just became an idea that caught on. And once that idea catches on, it's really, really effective. And they're replaying the greatest hits this time around. I mean, that stuff about the death tax, and the retirement tax has been simmering away through Facebook. And, you know, both sides are doing it Labour have really talked about the Liberals putting all pensioners on to the cashless cashless welfare card. Like there's no basis for that the government repeatedly says no, we're not going to do that. There's

Fran Kelly 

no way on this earth A coalition Goverment would do that

Kishor Napier-Raman 

gonna happen. We're not going to do it. And then, you know, Labor Albanese or senior labour ministers, Shadow Ministers get questioned are like, well, look at this statement that they made that could plausibly be spun as pointing to that, like five years ago. So really, that's the thing. They need a kernel of truth to it at a kind of disengaged electorate. That's not paying a huge amount of attention. And then yeah, that's it.

Fran Kelly 

And then is there another category of scare campaign? I'm thinking, you know, the government wanted, as you noted, Liz, this election, to have a national security feel to it, they really thought that would resonate well for them, thinks labour traditionally is wary of the electorates wary of labour on national security, that really wasn't getting much traction. And then lo and behold, we got the China Solomon's security pact, smack bang in the middle of it all. Duncan, does that come into the category of scare campaigns? Do you think I mean, it's a significant foreign policy issue. We had a debate sort of around the issue, and some elements of of the electorate did. But our point of view, is that just a scare campaign?

Duncan Ivison 

Look, I'm not sure it's a scare campaign. I mean, it's, you know, events happen. And it's one of those inevitable, sort of unanticipated events that that emerges in a campaign. Again, it comes down to how the parties are able to frame those issues in terms of the values and the broader framework they're providing to the Australian public. And I think, as we I think most of us were saying at the beginning, that space has just been so attenuated. Now, as Anthony said, year after year, that it's very hard to make sense of the differences and the important differences that one could take to that issue in particular, right, like, what is our Pacific? What is our agenda for the Pacific? I mean, what should our engagement with the Pacific be? How do we actually think about these issues in a in a broader foreign policy and value informed way? That's just completely missing? So inevitably, when the you know, events occur, we're left with, you know, the kind of the politics of it in the pure sense, rather than those broader

Fran Kelly 

But is that partly because there's not actually much difference between the policies of both sides. I mean, they actually both had the same formula.

Duncan Ivison 

Here's the question. Here's the question is that because we've had a robust conversation about Australia's role in the Pacific, and we've arrived at a kind of communal consensus about the appropriate way to handle this? Well, I don't think so. And something else has happened.

Fran Kelly 

Annika Is that is that because of that? Or not

Anika Gauja 

Look, I think, I think it's, it came along as another sort of opportunity for the government to create and frame a crisis and try to exploit a crisis, national security. And I think that it's sort of lost steam, because it is such a difficult policy issue. And both political parties are going to have, you know, trouble sort of convincing the voters that they have the track record on it. And it's also a complex issue, because it doesn't just end at the Solomons. It's, you know, picks up China. Yeah, as well. And that's a bigger problem

Fran Kelly 

 It does pick up China and you'd have to think that does perhaps fall in the category of scare compain but just Kish just before we leave this, the government is saying privately and public really, as long as it's talking about national security, they feel like they're on their territory, and it works for them. Labour did find that very strong sort of rhetorical attack line of worst foreign policy failure in the Pacific since the Second World War. Do you have a sense of which side feels like they're, they're winning the skirmish?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Well, yeah. Look, traditionally the government the coalition thinks national security is good for them. They really wanted this to be a Khaki election, you know, all the kind of sound bites and the messaging before the campaign was Labour can't be trusted with this scary world out there with war and China and all that kind of thing. And some of the stuff Peter Dutton and Morrison were saying was, you know, calling Richard miles a Manchurian Candidate, the Chinese Communist Party, is insane language. But, look, I think it's just like stepping away. And I think the Solomons issue has made it harder for them because it's it is, I think, a clear failure. But on foreign policy, I think this has actually been a pretty poor government on that kind of stuff. It's felt like the way they've handled diplomacy. I mean, look at McCrone and orcas has been often very impulsive. There's been a sidelining of the de fat and sort of the diplomats and how they've done things. There was at times a far too cosy relationship with Donald Trump, we've kind of forgotten about all of that. The way they've dealt with China could often be, you know, obviously, the relationship with China has been really fraught, but very tactless at times. So really, it's interesting that the government still thinks of this as a strong point, because I don't think it's been particularly good on these issues.

Elizabeth Hill 

to jump in there Fran, I'm just the slashing, complete slashing of the foreign aid budget, which happened under the Abbott government, which is started then and just kept going. Because it's not a vote winner, right. So it's an easy line item to just to kind of slash each budget that comes along. And so then your friends are left hanging out to dry. And I think it's been interesting that ALPs response to the current crisis has actually been a bit of a return to a standard way of treating the Pacific. So you know, investing in labour, Labour programmes, labour mobility programmes, even enhancing those allowing Pacific labour workers to bring their families, those kinds of things. So, you know

Fran Kelly 

No commitment yet on labour on where they're gonna ser Foreign Aid is there?

Elizabeth Hill 

No, not that I've heard of. Yeah. Just a commitment to bump it back up.

Fran Kelly 

Yeah. Okay. But just leaving that just coming back to a question that came in a little earlier that I missed from Adam, associate Associate Professor, he mentioned labour wasn't shouting their care policies from the rooftops. And the media often mentioned voters not truly knowing Anthony Albanese, to what extent is this Labour's fault? Is the media not responsible for not covering the Alp? Do you have a sense of that? I mean, I, I have a view on that. But

Elizabeth Hill 

no, my view my view, you know that we've had almost three weeks and they're not shouting loud enough. They've got good policies that really respond to the crisis in our care systems that was exposed by the pandemic. It's a strong card, why wouldn't you be playing it? And it is, as I said, it's, it's a cost of living, it's an everyday issue that gets negotiated at the household level. So I'm perplexed as to why they haven't talked more about it. They've got a lot to say,

Fran Kelly 

I have views ddes anyone on this panel have a view on why Labour's not because I agree with you. You know, I've been saying it myself.

Antony Green 

Not as much labour because I think it's peculiarity of Australian politics, that every policy has a cost attached. In the last election, you constantly buried by the numbers about how much policy costs, there's not there's not a principled argument about this is good policy. It's all turned into the budget. And it's something we've had in our politics since the 80s.

Duncan Ivison 

I mean, this is really, I mean, I just spent the last week in Canada, and some people, I mean, and Liz and I were chatting about before, Quebec has had originally $5. Now $10, a day daycare for 30 years, and there's been a huge amount of research assessment evaluation of the policy. Justin Trudeau has just put $30 billion on the table. Now, what was interesting, when that house was made in the budget, last week, the Conservative Party in Canada was like, it's a good policy. Yeah, we support it. So look, there is hope. Right? Like there are other places where you can have, you know, reasonable debates about these things. So I mean, it goes back to why, you know, and there could be a reasonable debate about the best form of chocolate. So for example

Fran Kelly 

Theres so much research on it. We know the reasearch is there but that very gets very little coverage. So

Elizabeth Hill 

I think it's also points to our failure of current governments in the last few elections to actually pitch a economic reform. Like, you know, we haven't had, you know, as many commentators say, reasonable economic reform, what, since the GST? It's a long time ago. And yet we know from the research, you know, when we're now service economy, high rates of participation by women, yeah. What kind of social service systems do we need to support that to unleash women's labour supply? You know, we're the most highly educated in the world ranked number one globally. And we we pitch up at 70 in terms of economic participation and opportunity, it's pathetic. Why would you waste that kind of resource and governments talk about productivity? They talk about growth, but they certainly haven't shifted to investing in the kinds of economic reform like early childhood education and care universal and free and like a generous paid parental leave

Fran Kelly 

The package we got from labour today, as you say, not shouting from the rooftops, but they announced last year. And the small change we got from the government in the budget does that go close to

Elizabeth Hill 

oh we have so far to go. And you know, Canada just really shows us up that you know, $30 billion to build a national community, early childhood education and care system. I mean that that's vision that changes, how households operate, that changes the kinds of decisions that men and women can make about how they work and how they care. We've got everything to benefit from that wellbeing, prosperity, productivity growth, you know, frame it anyway you like,

Fran Kelly 

Okay, let's go to climate. It's a perennial scare campaign, but let's not deal with it just on that level. I mean, because that has left us with policy stagnation, no doubt about it. We've seen more of it this week, Scott Morrison, labelling Labour's policy, which is essentially implementing the government's policy, a sneaky carbon tax. Duncan, I know you've you mentioned already been waiting for this to come up in the campaign. We've got it in this kind of turgid way today. This week. I'm assuming this is not the way you've been wanting to come

Duncan Ivison 

No, look, I think it is a really a prime example of here you have a kind of existential threat. Facing the planet, you have a lot of rich policy, a lot of rich thinking going on about how best to address the planet's warning and the consequences for us. You have a country like Australia, that if it's not burning is drowning. And you have a population, I think, basically begging I think the political system to engage them in this debate. And yet it's not happening. I think it's too easy to say the natural resources industry is crashing the debate in many ways they have moved further than the government on many of the mainstream issues. So why isn't it happening? And my I mean, I'm not a political scientist, and others will have a better, I think, rationale for this, but it's almost as if, in this case, we talked about scare campaigns for the population is almost as a political class is scared themselves into really tackling this issue in a significant way

Fran Kelly 

Has the political class scared themself Anika or have they seen how they can use it as a handy wedge. I mean, this weekend, where this week rather, we've seen the coalition adults with itself over climate policy with the National Party centre LNP Senator but nationals in Matt Canavan to declaring that zero targets are dead. It's all over dead around the world. He was slapped down publicly, sort of by Scott Morrison, and plenty of others. But is there a sense that everyone knows very clearly what Matt Canavan is doing he's telegraphing a message in one part of the country, Scott Morrison and others are telegraphing a different message in another part of the country in the major cities? So is that simply the answer why?

Anika Gauja 

Well, it's a pretty I mean, that sort of mixed messaging, multi messaging is pretty standard technique. But I don't think climate change is the right topic, or the right policy issue to do that, because it assumes I think that there are some distinct attitudes in the country and rural electorates around climate change, which we know is not the case. We know it's a complex policy issue. You have farmers who will, who will, you know, see the longer term effects of climate change as being detrimental to their to their businesses, and will support measures to reduce it, you'll have the resource industry who won't support measures to reduce it, obviously. So the way it plays out in regional Australia is far more complex than a urban Australia's supports climate change action, regional Australia doesn't,

Fran Kelly 

but labour would tell you Bill Shorten will tell you last time that it did cost him because it cost him because, you know, the the the analysis, their post election analysis shared that having seemed to be being sneaky, giving a different message there to here. You know, it didn't work very well. And it's certainly the coalition's climate scare resonated in the bush. That's what they would say, well, now we're three years on.

Anika Gauja 

Yeah exactly I think a difference of three years in this field has made a huge, a huge difference. And I think people's views are shifting, particularly as natural disasters are increasing, which affects a much more, you know, it affects everybody in the electorate, it affects liberal voters in the Upper North Shore as much as it does. Labour voters in Western Sydney who are really, really hot. And also, you know, people in the country

Duncan Ivison 

just two quick, just two quick things Fran on that. I mean, I think that's right. I mean, I do think there is something that social democratic parties probably have not got right, not just in Australia, but elsewhere. And that is, you know, there's this easy phrase, just transition, but what does that actually mean? What do you say, to you know, a steel worker or, you know, a pipe fitter, who is earning, you know, good wages is able to support their family, live the lifestyle they want, it's not good enough to say, you know, we'll find you great jobs in sort of renewables. I think that's one thing that hasn't really been, I think, tackled, and that's attributed, I think, to the stagnation. I think the other thing is stepping back even further from the issue is liberal democracies struggle, increasingly, increasingly with not just complexity, but long term issues. How do you build a sustainable long term policy approach? When you've got three year election cycles, 24 hour media, you know, sort of fire storms? That's a serious issue for liberal democracies more generally, I think.

Fran Kelly 

Yeah Kish I think that's true. I think the three year electoral cycles are a big part of that. But you know, the electorate, there is a sense, and certainly the business community has been said have moved on. But the party seems stuck in the basically, they're frightened. They're frightened of being hammered again, they're frightened of a big of moving forward with a big idea. And actually, you know, working through and those things are difficult labour did come out with a quite a detailed policy, I suppose last year around that transition, but not nearly as detailed as it needs to be for people to really trust that their job will be replaced. And there's no easy answer to that, because it won't happen quickly, you know?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Yeah. Look, I think one of the things we're talking about the fear is the 2019 election result was such a kind of shock and a surprise, and it was such a big shock and a surprise that it has really framed everything that's happened in the three years since in terms of how parties have thought about winning this next election. I think that's definitely framed a lot of the kind of fear around climate, it struck me looked at both major parties. You know, the Business Council, you called the shortened target in 2019 economy reckoning and now more demanding something more bold than both parties are putting out there. Right. Both parties are trying to solve their own internal climate wars for labour. It's about threading that needle with the hunter and coal country in Central Queensland and while also keeping the cities in check. And suddenly the LIBS face this kind of like teal issue that means that they can't really use the same messaging the candidate Matt Canavan is using up in Rockhampton, it over here in Rose Bay, right? It doesn't work anymore. And so that suddenly becomes really difficult for both parties to kind of thread that needle on climate. But one other last quick point there on what we're talking about people in the bush when we're talking about people in these coal communities, I think that there is a slightly dismissive and patronising way in which we consider them as people that don't really understand issues like just transition, don't understand issues, like you know, the inevitable end of the coal industry, in Flint in central Queensland, which is one of those key seats with a lot of coal miners. You know, more than half the electorate said that they thought climate was one of the most important issues, I think, or something like that

Fran Kelly 

That was the point that Anika was saying exactly, but I don't know that it's, I don't know if it's patronising, or it's just a sense that these things mean different things for different people in different places, they have very different meaning. And you've got to figure that out. You've got to go in there and spend a lot of time in those places and work out your policies, and be brave enough to explain those to people exactly as John Howard did for several years before he introduced the GST, you know, that you this will cost you in some places, but we are going to make it up with this. This, you know, reimburse you here and give you this credit here. And, you know, that was a hard argument and a hard slog for Peter Costello. And John Howard, we haven't seen that kind of effort on anything since then. You made you brought up the teal issue, as you call it. Let's go to that, because there's a fair bit of interest from the, from the the audience to climate is certainly a unifying issue for the so called teal independence. As is the national integrity commission, of course. Let's talk about the impact. Antony, I'll come to you on this, of the Independence and the minor parties on the left and the right of this campaign. You talk about partisan de alignment. What does that mean, and what's happening?

Antony Green 

Well, I mean, the parties still have the shadows. Most Australia's most when I was when I was studying politics, 30-40 years ago, the standard description of party systems around the world was apart from Belgium and Canada, that were the same as in 1920. Now, some of that is unpicked, since but Australia is one of the oldest stable party systems in the world. And it still has the shadows of we got three parties, party of Labour Party of Urban Capital, the party of rural capital, and that's what they are still named as. And that shadow has come down through inherited allegiances. But that's not the alignments we have today. I mean, I remember 1996 was the first really big sign of it. Since that was the year that Labour lost views for the first time. This was a seat which has got the highest proportion of trades workers. How is that? Well, it's it's more that the way they relate to the workforce changed over the previous decade as the privatisation of the big corporations, the outsourcing those sorts of things which took work turned people who were traditionally wage earners into self employed it changed the way they relate. And you're seeing that now with say the Hunter Valley you're seeing coal miners miners are compared to chicken gutters and other people who are working class. They are the royalty that working class they are high paid, working for large corporations generally heavily unionised. So there are different sort of workers often more affected by things like tax policy than they are by by wages conditions policy. So there's that that sort of the alignments are going on one side of Labour Party aggravated by the climate change issues. And then the other side of politics, you've got people who are traditional liberals, who don't like some of the more populist way, political issues are expressed nowadays in modern campaigning, they are concerned about integrity. They are concerned about climate change. And you said, and they, you know, there's a term that was used grew in prominence in 2004, which I hated, which was doctors wives, dismissing people, it was horrible terms. He says, it's only because you're rich, you can compare by compare care about human rights. Well, people do care about human rights, and it is important they care about them. And it's just not something that can be dismissed. It's the same, the alarm and occurring on both sides, and just still so simply, people are not don't define themselves by their job like they used to. So that's the other aspect.

Fran Kelly 

Can I just ask you, before we get to because of people wanting to know who's going to win in Kooyong Antony? Let's talk about Clive Palmer. Because last time around, he had a massive influence, I think on the outcome of the campaign, not because for his $80 million, he got anyone elected, but a big slab of that went in a anti Bill Shorten ads and anti labour ads, Labour credits that I think, particularly with their loss in Queensland, are we going to see that kind of impact again, from Clive Palmer? Can we say yet?

Antony Green 

I don't know. I mean, I am sitting, I've been waiting for months. When is he going to pivot? What's he going to do?

Fran Kelly 

Well it happened late last time.

Antony Green 

It happened late last time, and it just flooded Labour's campaign. And it's why it's why not only their first preference vote down, but it was why flows of preferences to label was so weak last time. It's not how to vote cards that cause preference flows. It's the whole attitude of what people think, where should my next preference go. And it was the strongest flow of preferences from one nation. And Palmer united, not Australia we'd ever seen before at the last election, and it was built around that, around that, that that message, you get it because everything I've ever seen, I've been doing a lot of work on this in the last two or three years. It's not how to vote and preference deals that cause preference flows. It's where people think their preferences should go. And they met most people tend to make up their own mind in one way or other. Okay, on that sort of issue. Now, I don't know what he's going to do in the next three weeks. What's he going to do? What's his change message? If he doesn't shift to saying preference, the coalition, if you continue says he won't, if he runs off and continues to frolic on on the anti vaccine mandate stuff. If he's still on that. Preference, flowers from that group are not going to be a bit more genuine on all over the place. And that's remember last time in Queensland, the liberal vote did not go up. Labour's votes fell. It was a third party vote that went up and there was strong preference

Fran Kelly 

William Bowe poll bludger has done some research on this and suggest that the the United Palmer vote is strongest in Victoria. Much stronger it is in Victoria, for instance, then it is in WA which would be a shift from last time. That would be surprising in some ways. But that's all about the antivax

Antony Green 

I'm waiting to see the actual results comes out.

Fran Kelly 

What about the so called independence in the past few elections independents have looked like particularly last time around being a real chance in some of those seats seat like Kooyong Josh Frydenberg was extremely worried. I must say he was a little worried today. I thought too, but will it be any different this time do you think let me ask the question from who's asked me this. David? Independence? Will they win in Kooyong and Wentworth? Thanks, David.

Antony Green 

They will, they will win some seats. I mean, I would suspect it's most likely the win two or three. Don't ask me which ones. But the the Kooyong one was in it was was Julian Burnside is a green last time. Now if you've been an independent, he might have had a better chance of winning. Often you have a better chance of winning isn't even I always say that independents win because of their names. There isn't one Party MP in that Parliament at the moment and is in Parliament who's elected because of who they are. They're all elected because they had a party label. No independent is elected because of the word independent on the ballot paper. They're elected because when voters turn up, they know who the name is.

Fran Kelly 

Do you think there's two of Helen Hayes?

Antony Green 

She inherits Sharkie, just about Helen. Helen Hayes Rebecca Sharkie was elected as the Nick Xenophon candidate. Yeah, that's right. Look the voices of Indi is effectively a political party for Indi. And also the only would say, country electorates are different. If you're a candidate and you don't have 60 to 70% recognition in a country electorate you can't win. If you can get 30 or 40 in a city electric You're doing well.

Fran Kelly 

Yeah. Anika do you see science as any different this time in terms of the fate of the prospects of the independent?

Anika Gauja 

Yeah look I think there is a lot that's different this time and this election campaign, and I think there's a sort of a confluence of a perfect storm and a number of factors and the first as Antony mentioned, that longer term decline in in the party vote. The second goes to that question that's been asked a lot in the media and you know, Jason Falinksi was talking about last night is and antony mentioned, are these independents independents? Or are they political parties? And I think that's a really interesting point, because the way in which they are organising the strategies that they have the sophistication of the strategies, the resources, the groundswell of support the mobilisation tactics that they're employing at the moment, they are way more effective than political parties at the moment, in mobilising supporters in these places. So I actually think, you know, irrespective of the success of individual independence, we are seeing quite a interesting shift away from the major parties to a different type of political organisation mobilisation, which I think you know, started started in indi it was quite prominent with the its been prominent with voices for voices for movements have been mobilising for the last two years in many rural electorates. And I can see that continuing. Okay,

Duncan Ivison 

maybe I mean, maybe it's a response sorry Fran. I mean, maybe it's a response to this need for more complexity in our system to account for the more complex preferences and beliefs that people have to begin with, right? I mean, I'm sure there's lots of other explanations for, you know, why different independents are running on the basis they are, but if we take a step back, I mean, we're seeing it happen in a sort of negative way in other parts of the world, you know, Trump, obviously. But you know, another way to think of it is, well, our political system is actually slowly respond to the fact that people have complex beliefs that aren't tightly aligned with either their job profile or the suburb they live in.

Fran Kelly 

We're going to run out of time, very quickly, there will be time for a few questions at the end so don't worry, but I want to go to I can't remember who brought this up. But the fact that Anika was it you that the pandemic really hasn't  factored yet, in this campaign, someone's mentioned that. A few months ago, I was saying in my podcast and all over the place, that this pandemic, this election would be a referendum on Scott Morrison's handling of the pandemic. Well, it hasn't been it's barely been mentioned, liz for the hundreds and 1000s of women in the frontline roles responding to the pandemic, the nurses, the aged care workers, the retail staff, is the pandemic still front of mind for them? And and will they judge the government on the handling of it? Good? That's a great question.

Elizabeth Hill 

I think considering that it was really only march that households were starting to kind of return to some kind of normal. I would like to think it's still in their minds. And they're still, you know, we know from our research, right, Ray Cooper, and my research that those women are really, you know, they'll, as we like to say, whiplashed and weary on account of the pandemic experience, you know, work went up and down, care piled up. And by the end of the year, they were kind of like, exhausted and like, how are we going to, how are we going to do this? By March, they were kind of really thinking about, well, what is work and care? What does our life look like going forward, and I would have thought that that would still be present in April, and even the end of May. And I would hope that they're looking to the political parties just to frame what the possible future might be. And that is really strongly connected to the kinds of wages and conditions that they receive with, you know, as we've said, we've seen flat wages growth, public sector wages cap has led to, you know, a real flattening of wages, and we've had strikes of teachers and nurses, at least in New South Wales, we've had our premier telling us that he will address that in the June budget, budget, but I think those things, if that doesn't play out in the election, I'm kind of a bit perplexed

Fran Kelly 

Well Kish I mean, Liz can live in hope. But the reality is, the parties are not really trying to raise the pandemic, much as an issue in labour has a wages or wages policy, but it struck me that in that first sky debate, a lot of people may not have seen it. But what was striking about it to me was every question asked from the floor was on one of Anthony Albanese issues, basically. But on the aged care nurse force  the nurse workforce question, he didn't really hammer the wages thing very much. He didn't knock that out of the park. I didn't think I mean, why isn't the pandemic featuring here? Does it surprise you? A couple

Kishor Napier-Raman 

of things. Firstly, people are really really sick and tired of talking or hearing about the pandemic and I think just like emotionally moved on, and the politicians know that

Fran Kelly 

except for all those hundreds of 1000s of people with COVID at the moment. Yeah, but

Kishor Napier-Raman 

I think as well because a lot of people they've either had it they know people have had it has been by and large, actually pretty okay for a lot of them? Obviously not for the many who have had it really really badly not for the 1000s who have died this year. But people do want to move on there is that sense in the community? There's a weariness. The second thing is that COVID I think is awkward for both parties. For Morrison, you know, it's a reminder of where they did fail on the vaccine rollout. How about that summer this year where everything was just super chaotic, and the government just the RATS ? Yeah, they wanted to go on holiday and not talk about it. And for labour, I think it's a little bit awkward as well, because this was something Morrison was gearing up to make this a freedom election for a long time last year, he wanted to say, look, Labour's going to put you back in lockdown if you vote for them. And you know that that's why labour had to be so careful with their messaging on things like reopening and stuff like that. Because anytime they look like there was an inkling that they might be on the side of tougher restrictions, the government could just be like, Ha, you're gonna dan Andrews, everyone and put you in lockdown forever. So awkward for both parties. No one wants to talk about it anymore. And I think that's a big reason why it hasn't featured in the debate so far.

Fran Kelly 

I suppose the issue is it could still be an underlying feature or the underlying feature behind the unpopularity of Scott Morrison that keeps showing up. You know, people sort of red hot, just on this, though, one thing I'm really waiting to appear in this campaign is a discussion about mental health. I mean, it's an enormous residual issue from this pandemic, enormous for people. There's plenty of surveys being done out there, that show number one of the top two issues for people mental health emerging from the COVID just not being talked about. Why not? Can anyone give me a sense of that? Duncan?

Duncan Ivison 

Oh, look, I mean, I think I think you're right. I think it's one of these issues that is hard and complex. And the pandemic exposed the lack of a coherent mental health system in Australia. There's lots of bits and pieces. But as my colleague, Ian Hickey, has said, for many years now, we haven't tied the system together and in a way that allows people to access the mental health care they need. I think we're going to see it emerging in collective bargaining, enterprise bargaining, I think we're gonna see it in workplaces become more prominent, I think it's a slow burn, but it isn't featuring in this election. The one thing I would say, Fran, just to sort of push back a bit. I think it's too early to tell about the pandemic, one of the biggest issues potentially, in this campaign will be the deficit. Why is the deficit so big? Because the government spent like never before to support people during the pandemic. And what's fascinating to me is, people now have an expectation about government that has fundamentally changed. And that is a huge thing for the Liberal Party in particular to adapt to, and the politics of the deficit, I think are a long term consequence of the pandemic, not just in Australia, but across the western world in particular,

Fran Kelly 

I think that's true. But as we've been saying all night, you know, long termism is not a feature of our political system. And at the moment, governments and opposition's are loving it, because they can basically promise anything. Yeah, people are expecting at the moment, no one's worried about the debt and deficit anymore. It's completely changed atmosphere to five years ago. We are almost out of time, I did promise you the chance to ask questions here. We do have two roving mics. Do we have anyone with a question? We've got a question down here in the front. We've got Isabel and Talia wandering around. And then there's one here in the very front. Yes, thank you very much. Can I just give the usual caveat? Can we please have questions not statements? And can you make them tight? Because we are almost out of time.

Thanks, Julian Assange question. What should we do about Julian Assange?

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Well, there's a curveball into the campaign. Anika? Is that going to win votes? That's my answer. Okay. Is that gonna win votes? There's a lot of bipartisan support for the government leaning on the UK and actually trying to get him brought back to Australia. You'd be surprised how many liberals want him brought back. Barnaby Joyce I thought it'd be Joyce is a big one. Well, George Christensen as well before he left the party. And a lot who will not put their name to it.

Fran Kelly 

But yeah, Penny Wong dodged it the other day.

Kishor Napier-Raman 

They have been dodging. Yeah. I don't know why. Honestly, I think that they

Fran Kelly 

you can ask questions, you can ask please, come on.

Well, look, I'm gonna make a statement. And last week, John shifted, and he said that he had lunch with Anthony Albanese a week or two ago and he said Albense on the record now saying enough. The wrong rights are wrong. Absolutely. There are rights and wrongs about it. But Albanese is on the public record saying enough.

Fran Kelly 

And you know what that point does come it came with and I'm gonna forget the name. But remember when John Howard The guy was in Guantanamo, David Hicks. John Howard got that message. People thought Enough, enough, this kids just kid. And I think that moment inevitably comes but labour is not going to make a peep of that before an election I wouldn't suggest is there's another

question. Thank you, everyone. When I see policies, like being promoted, like federal ICAC by Christmas, or renew a 82%, renewable energy by 2030, fixing aged care, etc. are we making the mistake that just because one side is promoting fewer policies,then  last time, we come to the immediate conclusion that there must be no vision at all, rather than perhaps there's just a, there's a vision, but its just not over promising potential compared to last time, because I just hear a lot of discourse about all like, there's no vision when I am of the view that there might be a shared, if small

Fran Kelly 

target, is that what it actually is? Or is it just not, you know, paying much attention to it?

Elizabeth Hill 

Yeah, I agree with you that there's a lot of vision in the in the ALP, response to the aged care, even if it is just implementing the recommendations from the Royal Commission. But um, that seems to be visionary these days responding to the advice of experts. So you know,good on them, but that, but again, that's a piece of social infrastructure, if all those plans for the ALP were rolled out, that causes a huge shift in the quality of life of residents, and the quality of life and well being of their families and the quality of life and well being of the workers. So that is a vision. And that would form.

Fran Kelly 

I mean, aged care. I'm it's just a hunch, really, of mine. But you've got the research, aged care. I'm pretty sure is a vote changer for a lot of people. But and that's why I think Labor's gone in some degree. But it's not sort of resonating hugely in this election campaign. Do you think it is a vote changer for people? Yeah, look,

Elizabeth Hill 

I mean, like, Duncan, I'm not a political scientist. But I do know about social policy. And again, I guess, you know, you would given the numbers, given the absolute crisis, given the fact that exasperation of the exasperation. And the fact is that in terms of jobs, growth, huge, the most jobs growth is going to be in human and social services that includes aged care and home care services. So doesn't that get some traction? You know, this is what matters?

Fran Kelly 

Well, the thing there's not gonna be jobs growth, and as they start training the workforce. So that's a question up here from a woman that I can see. Thank you. My question is simple and broad. Do it is the culture of Australian voters to vote governments out and not in? Anika?

Anika Gauja 

Yeah, well, that's pretty much the culture everywhere. I think it's sort of a natural response to the the very sort of style of election campaigns as events. And it's particularly cute in Australia, for the reasons that we've mentioned tonight, the three year cycle, the focus on sort of personality, I suppose that hasn't come up. But that's been evermore prominent over the years. And the lack of sort of focus on policy too. But I just wanted to piggyback off that question with another observation that I think draws together a few things that we've heard tonight and fran you asked the question, why is climate change? Not on the agenda, climate change, and also mental health and mental health? There's no coincidence that climate change and mental health are the top two issues of young Australians of concern for young Australians. And so my answer would be they're not on the agenda because young Australians aren't in parties. They are not integrated into our political system.

Fran Kelly 

They are enrolled. I think we've got the high that enrollment levels ever at the moment. I think it's 96% enrollment. That means there's a lot of young people absolutely

Anika Gauja 

absolutely. So they're not there in the in the parties in the parliaments presenting, you know, determining presented these policies, but they are there in record numbers that will vote this year. And I think that's part of the parties haven't responded. So it

Duncan Ivison 

gets to that long term, short term issue. I mean, I've become increasingly persuaded by a argument of a colleague of mine, David Runciman, in the UK, who's arguing that we should lower the voting age to 10 or 11. Just just it's not it's not being facetious because just think about the issues we're facing. And then I'm sure Anika you can give us the data on on you know, how old you are actually shapes your views about existential crises facing the planet, right. So I'm a

Fran Kelly 

little kiddies that's what that's the danger of losing control of this debate, just as we're about to end so I'm going to stop your liz. Okay, no worries thanks for the questions from the audience, but we are out of time. So let's end on a hopeful night sort of the same question as the beginning, but put in a hopeful way, which is, what do you hope for in the last three weeks? Liz, you can go first, because I cut you off.

Elizabeth Hill 

I would like politicians to, listen to younger voters and face up and confront them and answer their responses. And they're avoiding that at the moment.

Fran Kelly 

Okay, Duncan.

Duncan Ivison 

Yeah, just don't underestimate the Australian public. And, and in a sense,

Fran Kelly 

so what would you hope to see in the last three weeks,

Duncan Ivison 

I think I'd like to see the parties taking a bit more risk with the ideas that are there, as Liz and others have said, in their platforms, and really push them out and engage the public on them. Anika,

Anika Gauja 

I'd like to see leaders other than the two major party leaders participate in debates. We're gonna have some election debates coming up at least one if not two more. So you want. I want the I want the full range of voices that are in this campaign to be present in those debates,

Fran Kelly 

electrifying idea isn't it Antony you're noy getting off scot free.

Antony Green 

I mean, I happen to think that the Reserve Bank decision next Tuesday might determine the whole future of this campaign, and determine the last three weeks but we'll see whenever, I mean, if they make a decision next Tuesday, I think the campaign will go off in a very different tangent,

Fran Kelly 

sorry to be a journalist on you. But that wasn't my question, what would you like to

Antony Green 

know? Part of my part of my response to that is simply, I actually barely see any of the campaign.

Kishor Napier-Raman 

Last word from you. Look, Australia's Got one of the whitest Parliament's of any in the Western world. And I don't think the major parties are really doing enough to change that. But I would like to see a few more diverse candidates both get up and which I think will happen. And also I think, you know, voters in very migrant heavy parts of Sydney and Melbourne will decide this election. So let's let's see what they decide.

Fran Kelly 

Well, on that note, thank you. Could you please thank our panel? Duncan Ivison, Liz Hill, Anika Guaja, Kishor Napier-Raman and Antony Green.  Thank you. Can I say thanks to you, all of you for coming out on a sort of pretty wet and drab night really in Sydney, to the Sydney ideas forum. They're always fantastic. There's more coming up. There'll be some in May. I can't personally can't wait for postelection Part Two that was promised to us by Lisa earlier. So if you want to find out more head to the Sydney ideas website and again, thank you, all of you and you know, vote well vote often and you know what they say thank you.

Anika’s research interests broadly centre on the comparative analysis of political institutions and participation in representative democracies. Her work to date has looked at the operation of political parties, assessing the continuing relevance of these institutions as mechanisms for citizen participation in politics and their ability to represent diverse and conflicting interests. She is particularly interested in how parties, and other collective political organisations, adapt to social and technological change.

Anika also researches at the intersection of law and politics and has written extensively on the regulation of political organisations and elections.

Anika has published in journals both within Australia and internationally, including Party Politics, the European Journal of Political Research, Governance and Comparative Politics. She is the author of Party Reform (Oxford University Press), The Politics of Party Policy (Palgrave Macmillan) and co-editor of numerous publications on party members and electoral politics, including Party Members and Activists (Routledge) and Morison's Miracle: The 2019 Australian Federal Election (ANU Press).

Antony is best known as Chief Election Analyst with the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) and is the face of television election coverages in Australia.

Antony has worked for the ABC since 1989. He has also worked on local government elections, numerous by-elections and covered elections in the United Kingdom, New Zealand and Canada. Antony designed the ABC’s election night computer analysis system.

Antony studied at the University of Sydney and was awarded a Bachelor of Science in Pure Mathematics and Computer Science, and a Bachelor of Economics with Honours in politics. He was granted an Honorary Doctor of Letters by the University of Sydney in 2014 and appointed an Adjunct Professor in the University of Sydney’s Department of Government and International Relations. 

Elizabeth is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Economy at the University of Sydney. She is Deputy Director of the Gender Equality in Working Life (GEWL) Research Initiative, co-convenor of the Australian Work and Family Policy Roundtable and co-convenor of the Body@Work Project.

As a leading researcher on the future of women, work and care in Australia and the Asian region, she has collaborated on research into gender equality, work and care with leading national and international institutions, including the International Labour Organisation and UN Women.

Elizabeth’s research focuses on how economic institutions shape women’s paid work, unpaid care and the care workforce, especially as they evolve in response to the rapidly evolving dynamics of the global political economy. Elizabeth has served as a non-executive director on a number of non-profit Boards and is an experienced media commentator and advisor to government, unions, and business.

Duncan is a political philosopher with research and teaching interests in contemporary political theory, the history of political thought and moral philosophy.

He is formerly Deputy Vice Chancellor (Research) at the University of Sydney. Prior to the was Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Social Sciences (2010-2015) and Head of the School of Philosophical and Historical Inquiry (2007-2009). He continues to teach in the Department of Philosophy. He has also held appointments at the University of Toronto and the University of York (UK).

Duncan was a Laurance S. Rockefeller Visiting Fellow and Visiting Fellow in Ethics and Public Affairs at the Center for Human Values, Princeton University (2002-03), as well as a Postdoctoral Fellow at the Research School of Social Sciences at the ANU (1993-96). He was elected to the Australian Academy of the Humanities in 2009.

Kishor is a federal politics reporter for Crikey, based in the Canberra press gallery. He writes news and analysis with a focus on foreign policy, legal affairs and government transparency. He graduated from the University of Sydney in 2019 with degrees in arts and law. 

Respected radio presenter, current affairs journalist, podcaster and political correspondent, Fran previously presented ABC RN Breakfast on weekdays.