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Unit outline_

PHYS4802: Quantitative Disaster Analysis

Semester 2, 2022 [Normal day] - Remote

In recent decades, anthropogenic disasters such as climate change are increasingly adding to natural disasters, both impacting on people and assets of built infrastructure, resulting in loss of lives and damage cost. It is therefore important to understand the impacts of disasters before they strike and the vulnerability of certain sectors of the economy, enabling us to take precautionary measures to protect people and minimise damage. Disaster analysis has become a powerful tool for assessing potential economic losses, and in particular for preparing recovery plans and developing scenarios for building resilience into the economy. This unit will provide a comprehensive introduction to the field of disaster analysis, with particular emphasis on simulating and quantifying the effects of a disaster on an economy, both directly and indirectly as a result of cascading disruptions of supply chains. The aim of the unit is to equip students with an understanding of quantitative and qualitative approaches underlying the field of disaster analysis, and their importance for planning resilient economies. In particular, students will undertake hands-on exercises, modeling disasters and shocks at various scales. Furthermore, students will be able to explore the many applications of disaster modelling in assessing the impacts of floods, droughts, space weather, diseases, and a collapse of animal and plant populations. This unit of study includes detailed case studies of the COVID-19 pandemic, Tropical Cyclone Debbie, and the impact of climate change on food supply. Guest lecturers from academia and industry provide perspectives from real-world practice. Students will benefit from enrolling in PHYS5033 for a sound understanding of input-output analysis as the basis of disaster input-output assessments.

Unit details and rules

Academic unit Physics Academic Operations
Credit points 6
Prerequisites
? 
None
Corequisites
? 
None
Prohibitions
? 
None
Assumed knowledge
? 

None

Available to study abroad and exchange students

No

Teaching staff

Coordinator Arunima Malik, arunima.malik@sydney.edu.au
Lecturer(s) Arunima Malik, arunima.malik@sydney.edu.au
Mengyu Li, mengyu.li@sydney.edu.au
Type Description Weight Due Length
Assignment Reflective piece
A reflection of all lectures, including a quantitative example.
30% Formal exam period
Due date: 14 Nov 2022 at 23:59
~12 pages
Outcomes assessed: LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO5 LO6 LO7
Assignment Discussion paper
Discussion paper based on disaster analysis
40% Week 05
Due date: 04 Sep 2022 at 23:59
3,000 words
Outcomes assessed: LO1 LO7 LO6 LO5 LO4 LO3 LO2
Presentation group assignment Seminar presentation
Students present on a topic related to disaster analysis/management
30% Week 13 ~10-15 minutes
Outcomes assessed: LO1 LO2 LO5 LO6 LO7
group assignment = group assignment ?

Assessment summary

Detailed information for each assessment can be found on Canvas.

Assessment criteria

The University awards common result grades, set out in the Coursework Policy 2014 (Schedule 1).

As a general guide, a high distinction indicates work of an exceptional standard, a distinction a very high standard, a credit a good standard, and a pass an acceptable standard.

Result name

Mark range

Description

High distinction

85 - 100

 

Distinction

75 - 84

 

Credit

65 - 74

 

Pass

50 - 64

 

Fail

0 - 49

When you don’t meet the learning outcomes of the unit to a satisfactory standard.

For more information see guide to grades.

Late submission

In accordance with University policy, these penalties apply when written work is submitted after 11:59pm on the due date:

  • Deduction of 5% of the maximum mark for each calendar day after the due date.
  • After ten calendar days late, a mark of zero will be awarded.

Academic integrity

The Current Student website provides information on academic integrity and the resources available to all students. The University expects students and staff to act ethically and honestly and will treat all allegations of academic integrity breaches seriously.

We use similarity detection software to detect potential instances of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breach. If such matches indicate evidence of plagiarism or other forms of academic integrity breaches, your teacher is required to report your work for further investigation.

Use of generative artificial intelligence (AI) and automated writing tools

You may only use generative AI and automated writing tools in assessment tasks if you are permitted to by your unit coordinator. If you do use these tools, you must acknowledge this in your work, either in a footnote or an acknowledgement section. The assessment instructions or unit outline will give guidance of the types of tools that are permitted and how the tools should be used.

Your final submitted work must be your own, original work. You must acknowledge any use of generative AI tools that have been used in the assessment, and any material that forms part of your submission must be appropriately referenced. For guidance on how to acknowledge the use of AI, please refer to the AI in Education Canvas site.

The unapproved use of these tools or unacknowledged use will be considered a breach of the Academic Integrity Policy and penalties may apply.

Studiosity is permitted unless otherwise indicated by the unit coordinator. The use of this service must be acknowledged in your submission as detailed on the Learning Hub’s Canvas page.

Outside assessment tasks, generative AI tools may be used to support your learning. The AI in Education Canvas site contains a number of productive ways that students are using AI to improve their learning.

Simple extensions

If you encounter a problem submitting your work on time, you may be able to apply for an extension of five calendar days through a simple extension.  The application process will be different depending on the type of assessment and extensions cannot be granted for some assessment types like exams.

Special consideration

If exceptional circumstances mean you can’t complete an assessment, you need consideration for a longer period of time, or if you have essential commitments which impact your performance in an assessment, you may be eligible for special consideration or special arrangements.

Special consideration applications will not be affected by a simple extension application.

Using AI responsibly

Co-created with students, AI in Education includes lots of helpful examples of how students use generative AI tools to support their learning. It explains how generative AI works, the different tools available and how to use them responsibly and productively.

WK Topic Learning activity Learning outcomes
Week 01 Introduction and the need for disaster assessments Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2
Week 02 Basics of input-output analysis and disaster analysis Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4
Week 03 TECHNIQUE 1 STEENGE METHOD – in detail – mathematics, applications and examples Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO6 LO7
Week 04 TECHNIQUE 2 SPACE WEATHER METHOD – in detail – mathematics, applications and examples Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO6 LO7
Week 05 TECHNIQUE 3 TAIWAN METHOD – in detail – mathematics, applications and examples Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO6 LO7
Week 06 TECHNIQUE 4 VENEZUELA METHOD – in detail – mathematics, applications and examples Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO6 LO7
Week 07 CORE of all disaster methods – GAMMA MATRIX – how to collect data, how to populate the gamma matrix, how to estimate infrastructure damages Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO5 LO7
Week 08 Public holiday – Replacement recorded lecture uploaded online (Applications of disaster input-output analysis Lecture (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO7
Week 09 Quantitative Disaster Analysis using the Tableau software I Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO1 LO2 LO3 LO4 LO6 LO7
Week 10 Quantitative Disaster Analysis using the Tableau software II Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO4
Week 11 Disaster management – case studies of 2007 Hunter Floods, working with quantitative fire data sets Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO4 LO5
Week 12 Disaster planning from a business perspective Lecture and tutorial (2 hr) LO4

Study commitment

Typically, there is a minimum expectation of 1.5-2 hours of student effort per week per credit point for units of study offered over a full semester. For a 6 credit point unit, this equates to roughly 120-150 hours of student effort in total.

Learning outcomes are what students know, understand and are able to do on completion of a unit of study. They are aligned with the University's graduate qualities and are assessed as part of the curriculum.

At the completion of this unit, you should be able to:

  • LO1. understand the importance of disaster analysis for simulating the impact of natural and anthropogenic disasters on the local, national, and global economy
  • LO2. appreciate the complexity and interconnectedness of economic supply chains, and what this means for the vulnerability of our society
  • LO3. understand the theory of disaster input-output analysis
  • LO4. understand the methodology underlying quantitative disaster simulations
  • LO5. appreciate the need for assessing the impacts of disasters for preparing recovery plans, and building resilience into the economy
  • LO6. gain skills for quantitatively analysing the shocks of a disaster at a local and regional Australian setting
  • LO7. understand the many applications of disaster modelling for assessing the impacts of natural disaster (e.g. electromagnetic storms), and anthropogenic disasters (e.g. due to climate change).

Graduate qualities

The graduate qualities are the qualities and skills that all University of Sydney graduates must demonstrate on successful completion of an award course. As a future Sydney graduate, the set of qualities have been designed to equip you for the contemporary world.

GQ1 Depth of disciplinary expertise

Deep disciplinary expertise is the ability to integrate and rigorously apply knowledge, understanding and skills of a recognised discipline defined by scholarly activity, as well as familiarity with evolving practice of the discipline.

GQ2 Critical thinking and problem solving

Critical thinking and problem solving are the questioning of ideas, evidence and assumptions in order to propose and evaluate hypotheses or alternative arguments before formulating a conclusion or a solution to an identified problem.

GQ3 Oral and written communication

Effective communication, in both oral and written form, is the clear exchange of meaning in a manner that is appropriate to audience and context.

GQ4 Information and digital literacy

Information and digital literacy is the ability to locate, interpret, evaluate, manage, adapt, integrate, create and convey information using appropriate resources, tools and strategies.

GQ5 Inventiveness

Generating novel ideas and solutions.

GQ6 Cultural competence

Cultural Competence is the ability to actively, ethically, respectfully, and successfully engage across and between cultures. In the Australian context, this includes and celebrates Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander cultures, knowledge systems, and a mature understanding of contemporary issues.

GQ7 Interdisciplinary effectiveness

Interdisciplinary effectiveness is the integration and synthesis of multiple viewpoints and practices, working effectively across disciplinary boundaries.

GQ8 Integrated professional, ethical, and personal identity

An integrated professional, ethical and personal identity is understanding the interaction between one’s personal and professional selves in an ethical context.

GQ9 Influence

Engaging others in a process, idea or vision.

Outcome map

Learning outcomes Graduate qualities
GQ1 GQ2 GQ3 GQ4 GQ5 GQ6 GQ7 GQ8 GQ9

This section outlines changes made to this unit following staff and student reviews.

The assignment and lecture outline have been updated since this unit was last offered.

Work, health and safety

We are governed by the Work Health and Safety Act 2011, Work Health and Safety Regulation 2011 and Codes of Practice. Penalties for non-compliance have increased. Everyone has a responsibility for health and safety at work. The University’s Work Health and Safety policy explains the responsibilities and expectations of workers and others, and the procedures for managing WHS risks associated with University activities.

Disclaimer

The University reserves the right to amend units of study or no longer offer certain units, including where there are low enrolment numbers.

To help you understand common terms that we use at the University, we offer an online glossary.