Professor James Morley

BA (Honours) UBC, MA PhD UW
Professor of Macroeconomics

Telephone +61 2 9351 3368

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Biographical details

James Morley was appointed as Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Sydney in 2017. He received his PhD from the University of Washington in 1999 and previously held positions at Washington University in St. Louis and the University of New South Wales, most recently as Associate Dean (Research) of the UNSW Business School from 2014-2017. His research focuses on the empirical analysis of business cycles, stabilization policy, and sources of persistent changes in macroeconomic and financial conditions.

He is an Academic Fellow of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and has been a visiting scholar at various policy institutions worldwide, including the Bank of Canada, Bank Negara Malaysia, and the Bank for International Settlements. He is a former President of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics and is currently Co-Editor of The Economic Record.

Research interests

  • Macroeconomics
  • Finance
  • Econometrics

Associations

  • Australasian Macroeconomic Society, Executive Committee
  • Australian Bureau of Statistics, Economic Statistics Advisory Group
  • The Australian Treasury, Expert Panel on Forecasting Methodologies
  • CAMA Shadow RBA Board
  • Macroeconomic Advisers LLC, Advisory Board
  • Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Academic Fellow
  • The Economic Record, Co-Editor
  • Journal of Applied Econometrics, Associate Editor
  • Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, Associate Editor
  • Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Associate Editor
  • Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Associate Editor

In the media

Selected grants

2014

  • Analysis of fiscal policy responses to macroeconomic conditions in Australia and the US using real time data; Shields K, Lee K, Morley J; Australian Research Council (ARC)/Discovery Projects (DP).

2013

  • Estimating the effects of fiscal policy; Morley J; Australian Research Council (ARC)/Discovery Projects (DP).

Selected publications

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Book Chapters

  • Morley, J., Rabah, Z. (2014). Testing for a markov-switching mean in serially correlated data. In Jun Ma, Mark Wohar (Eds.), Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models: With Applications in Economics and Finance, (pp. 85-97). United States: Springer. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2009). Macroeconomics, Nonlinear Time Series in. In Robert A Meyers (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, (pp. 5325-5348). New York: Springer. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2006). The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features. In C. Milas, P. Rothman, & D. van Dijk (Eds.), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, (pp. 75-95). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

Journals

  • Donayre, L., Eo, Y., Morley, J. (2018). Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 22(1), 1-11. [More Information]
  • Kamber, G., Morley, J., Wong, B. (2018). Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(3), 550-566. [More Information]
  • Endut, N., Morley, J., Tien, P. (2018). The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy. Empirical Economics, 54(3), 959-987. [More Information]
  • Kulish, M., Morley, J., Robinson, T. (2017). Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 88, 35-49. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Panovska, I., Sinclair, T. (2017). Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 21(1), 160-182. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Singh, A. (2016). Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(4), 699-728. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2016). Macro-Finance Linkages. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(4), 698-711. [More Information]
  • Lo, M., Morley, J. (2015). Bayesian analysis of nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and the purchasing power parity persistence puzzle. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 51-60. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2015). Discussion of "trend inflation in advanced economies". International Journal of Central Banking, 11, 137-143.
  • Morley, J., Piger, J., Rasche, R. (2015). Inflation in the G7: Mind the Gap(S)? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4), 883-912. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2015). Introduction to Special Issue on the Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles, Financial Markets, and Inflation: Essays in Honor of Charles Nelson. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4), 723-727. [More Information]
  • Eo, Y., Morley, J. (2015). Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks. Quantitative Economics, 6(2), 463-497. [More Information]
  • Fazzari, S., Morley, J., Panovska, I. (2015). State-dependent effects of fiscal policy. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(3), 285-315. [More Information]
  • Lee, K., Morley, J., Shields, K. (2015). The Meta Taylor Rule. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(1), 73-98. [More Information]
  • Kishor, N., Morley, J. (2015). What factors drive the price-rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 58, 235-249. [More Information]
  • Viray, M., Morley, J., Coopersmith, C., Kollef, M., Fraser, V., Warren, D. (2014). Daily bathing with chlorhexidine-based soap and the prevention of Staphylococcus aureus transmission and infection. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 35(3), 243-250. [More Information]
  • Liu, Y., Morley, J. (2014). Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 42, 50-68. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J., Tien, P. (2013). Reproducing business cycle features: Are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information? Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 17(5), 483-498. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2012). The asymmetric business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1), 208-221. [More Information]
  • Ajenjo, M., Morley, J., Russo, A., McMullen, K., Robinson, C., Williams, R., Warren, D. (2011). Peripherally inserted central venous catheter-associated bloodstream infections in hospitalized adult patients. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 32(2), 125-130. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2011). The two interpretations of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 15(3), 419-439. [More Information]
  • Abdymomunov, A., Morley, J. (2011). Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes. Applied Financial Economics, 21(19), 1463-1478. [More Information]
  • Kang, K., Kim, C., Morley, J. (2009). Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 13(4). [More Information]
  • Ghosh, N., Varvares, C., Morley, J. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on output. Business Economics, 44(4), 220-228. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2008). Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 615-638. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2008). Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes. Journal of Econometrics, 146(2), 220-226. [More Information]
  • King, T., Morley, J. (2007). In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(2), 550-564. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2007). The slow adjustment of aggregate consumption to permanent income. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3), 615-638. [More Information]
  • Gravelle, T., Kichian, M., Morley, J. (2006). Detecting Shift-Contagion in Currency and Bond Markets. Journal of International Economics, 68(2), 409-423. [More Information]
  • Gravelle, T., Morley, J. (2005). A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates. Applied Financial Economics, 5(10), 691-705. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2005). Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(2), 291-309. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2005). The Structural Break in the Equity Premium. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23(2), 181-191. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2004). Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36(No. 3, Part 1), 339-360.
  • Morley, J., Nelson, C., Zivot, E. (2003). Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different? Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(2), 235-243. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2002). A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Economics Letters, 75(1), 123-127. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2001). Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices? Journal of Empirical Finance, 8(4), 403-426. [More Information]

2018

  • Donayre, L., Eo, Y., Morley, J. (2018). Improving Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Intervals for Threshold Parameters in Finite Samples. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 22(1), 1-11. [More Information]
  • Kamber, G., Morley, J., Wong, B. (2018). Intuitive and reliable estimates of the output gap from a Beveridge-Nelson filter. Review of Economics and Statistics, 100(3), 550-566. [More Information]
  • Endut, N., Morley, J., Tien, P. (2018). The changing transmission mechanism of US monetary policy. Empirical Economics, 54(3), 959-987. [More Information]

2017

  • Kulish, M., Morley, J., Robinson, T. (2017). Estimating DSGE models with zero interest rate policy. Journal of Monetary Economics, 88, 35-49. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Panovska, I., Sinclair, T. (2017). Testing Stationarity With Unobserved-Components Models. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 21(1), 160-182. [More Information]

2016

  • Morley, J., Singh, A. (2016). Inventory Shocks and the Great Moderation. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 48(4), 699-728. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2016). Macro-Finance Linkages. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(4), 698-711. [More Information]

2015

  • Lo, M., Morley, J. (2015). Bayesian analysis of nonlinear exchange rate dynamics and the purchasing power parity persistence puzzle. Journal of International Money and Finance, 51, 51-60. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2015). Discussion of "trend inflation in advanced economies". International Journal of Central Banking, 11, 137-143.
  • Morley, J., Piger, J., Rasche, R. (2015). Inflation in the G7: Mind the Gap(S)? Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4), 883-912. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2015). Introduction to Special Issue on the Empirical Analysis of Business Cycles, Financial Markets, and Inflation: Essays in Honor of Charles Nelson. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 19(4), 723-727. [More Information]
  • Eo, Y., Morley, J. (2015). Likelihood-Ratio-Based Confidence Sets for the Timing of Structural Breaks. Quantitative Economics, 6(2), 463-497. [More Information]
  • Fazzari, S., Morley, J., Panovska, I. (2015). State-dependent effects of fiscal policy. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 19(3), 285-315. [More Information]
  • Lee, K., Morley, J., Shields, K. (2015). The Meta Taylor Rule. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 47(1), 73-98. [More Information]
  • Kishor, N., Morley, J. (2015). What factors drive the price-rent ratio for the housing market? A modified present-value analysis. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 58, 235-249. [More Information]

2014

  • Viray, M., Morley, J., Coopersmith, C., Kollef, M., Fraser, V., Warren, D. (2014). Daily bathing with chlorhexidine-based soap and the prevention of Staphylococcus aureus transmission and infection. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 35(3), 243-250. [More Information]
  • Liu, Y., Morley, J. (2014). Structural evolution of the postwar U.S. economy. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 42, 50-68. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Rabah, Z. (2014). Testing for a markov-switching mean in serially correlated data. In Jun Ma, Mark Wohar (Eds.), Recent Advances in Estimating Nonlinear Models: With Applications in Economics and Finance, (pp. 85-97). United States: Springer. [More Information]

2013

  • Morley, J., Piger, J., Tien, P. (2013). Reproducing business cycle features: Are nonlinear dynamics a proxy for multivariate information? Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 17(5), 483-498. [More Information]

2012

  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2012). The asymmetric business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics, 94(1), 208-221. [More Information]

2011

  • Ajenjo, M., Morley, J., Russo, A., McMullen, K., Robinson, C., Williams, R., Warren, D. (2011). Peripherally inserted central venous catheter-associated bloodstream infections in hospitalized adult patients. Infection Control and Hospital Epidemiology, 32(2), 125-130. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2011). The two interpretations of the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 15(3), 419-439. [More Information]
  • Abdymomunov, A., Morley, J. (2011). Time variation of CAPM betas across market volatility regimes. Applied Financial Economics, 21(19), 1463-1478. [More Information]

2009

  • Kang, K., Kim, C., Morley, J. (2009). Changes in U.S. Inflation Persistence. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 13(4). [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2009). Macroeconomics, Nonlinear Time Series in. In Robert A Meyers (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science, (pp. 5325-5348). New York: Springer. [More Information]
  • Ghosh, N., Varvares, C., Morley, J. (2009). The effects of oil price shocks on output. Business Economics, 44(4), 220-228. [More Information]

2008

  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2008). Bayesian counterfactual analysis of the sources of the great moderation. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23(2), 615-638. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2008). Trend/cycle decomposition of regime-switching processes. Journal of Econometrics, 146(2), 220-226. [More Information]

2007

  • King, T., Morley, J. (2007). In Search of the Natural Rate of Unemployment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 54(2), 550-564. [More Information]
  • Morley, J. (2007). The slow adjustment of aggregate consumption to permanent income. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 39(2-3), 615-638. [More Information]

2006

  • Gravelle, T., Kichian, M., Morley, J. (2006). Detecting Shift-Contagion in Currency and Bond Markets. Journal of International Economics, 68(2), 409-423. [More Information]
  • Morley, J., Piger, J. (2006). The Importance of Nonlinearity in Reproducing Business Cycle Features. In C. Milas, P. Rothman, & D. van Dijk (Eds.), Nonlinear Time Series Analysis of Business Cycles, (pp. 75-95). Amsterdam: Elsevier Science.

2005

  • Gravelle, T., Morley, J. (2005). A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates. Applied Financial Economics, 5(10), 691-705. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Piger, J. (2005). Nonlinearity and the Permanent Effects of Recessions. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 20(2), 291-309. [More Information]
  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2005). The Structural Break in the Equity Premium. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 23(2), 181-191. [More Information]

2004

  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2004). Is There a Positive Relationship between Stock Market Volatility and the Equity Premium? Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 36(No. 3, Part 1), 339-360.

2003

  • Morley, J., Nelson, C., Zivot, E. (2003). Why Are the Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Components Decompositions of GDP So Different? Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(2), 235-243. [More Information]

2002

  • Morley, J. (2002). A state-space approach to calculating the Beveridge-Nelson decomposition. Economics Letters, 75(1), 123-127. [More Information]

2001

  • Kim, C., Morley, J., Nelson, C. (2001). Does an intertemporal tradeoff between risk and return explain mean reversion in stock prices? Journal of Empirical Finance, 8(4), 403-426. [More Information]

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