Thesis abstract:

Autonomous vehicles (AVs) represent a significant advancement in transportation technology, potentially impacting individuals’ accessibility. Their effects include enhanced mobility for certain transport-disadvantaged individuals (i.e., those with driving restrictions), improved safety, cost savings, and in-vehicle productivity. AVs may also lead to undesirable impacts such as increased traffic congestion due to empty vehicles, induced demand from both existing road users and newly mobile transport-disadvantaged individuals, and public transport cannibalisation. These positive and negative impacts may be disproportionately distributed among different populations. While the benefits may potentially be accrued by those who can afford AVs at an early stage, the negative effects might be more pronounced for the unwilling and later adopter transport-disadvantaged individuals. These changes in accessibility could alter individuals’ risk of transport-related social exclusion (TRSE). Therefore, it is critical to explore how AVs can influence individuals’ accessibility and consequently their risk of TRSE. This thesis proposal aims to understand the potential changes in transportdisadvantaged individuals’ travel behaviour in the AV era as well as how those changes influence accessibility as a whole. To achieve this aim, this thesis is divided into three interconnected objectives: (i) to investigate the potential change in the travel and activity frequency of transport-disadvantaged individuals, (ii) to analysis the mode choice preferences of transport-disadvantaged individuals, and (iii) to evaluate accessibility changes for transport-disadvantaged and the general population. To achieve the first objective, a propensity score matching analysis of Sydney Household Travel Survey will be complemented with insights from focus group discussions with transport-disadvantaged individuals. The second objective will be achieved by discrete choice modelling informed by the initial focus group findings. Lastly, integrated land use and transport models will be employed to explore the third objective under different AV deployment and policy scenarios. The holistic analysis of the whole thesis is expected to inform strategies and policies to promote social inclusion in the AV era.