New risk index to predict climate displacement
Disasters have displaced more than 225 million people in the last decade in Asia and the Pacific. The region accounted for a staggering 78% of displacements globally during this period. Troublingly, these numbers are set against a region which is also expected to experience some of the most significant impacts of climate change.
Despite the growing momentum to research how climate change will affect communities, governments and humanitarian organisations, reseachers are still largely guessing as to where and when displacement from climate change might unfold.
The Risk Index for Climate Displacement (RICD) is a new predictive model being developed by a consortium of more than 20 organisations to inform adaptation and response efforts across Asia and the Pacific. The project is being supported with funding from the European Union and led by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), the University of the Philippines Resilience Institute (UPRI) and the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT).
The University of Sydney was selected as partner on the initiative, which launched last week with a policy dialogue and co-creation symposium in Bangkok, Thailand. Dr Aaron Opdyke and A/Prof Nader Naderpajouh joined the event, presenting on work which will inform the RICD.
Dr Opdyke’s presentation shared lessons on developing vulnerability functions and indices in the Philippines, while A/Prof Naderpajouh presented on research studies that propose strategies to bridge top-down and bottom-up community risk assessment which was funded by Natural Hazards Research Australia.
The symposium included keynote talks from Ms Rania Ahmed Sharsh, Director of Climate Action of IOM as well as Secretary Robert Borje, Commissioner and Vice Chair of the Philippines Climate Change Commission. Technical sessions within the symposium scoped vulnerability, hazard, exposure, impact, and tipping point topics which form the core of the project’s conceptual framework.
The RICD will begin with pilots focusing on the Philippines, Indonesia, and Fiji. The University of Sydney team, which also includes several collaborators across the Sydney Environment Institute, is set to take a lead role to shape how vulnerability is assessed and incorporated into the model.
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