Exploring the unintended

Sometimes, attempting to solve one problem inadvertently creates another. Australia’s most celebrated pest — the cane toad — is a constant reminder of this.

The Bufo marinus (a native species of the Americas) was brought into Australia in 1935 to address the persistent pest problem of the Queensland sugar cane industry. The nature-based solution to introduce predator toads to sugar cane beetle prey seemed like a good idea then. Unfortunately, the toads did not make a significant impact on the beetle population as expected. They instead contributed to the decline in the population of other species while quickly and efficiently growing their own. By 1950, the cane toad solution had transformed itself into a problem. And generations later, Australia continues to wrestle with this unintended consequence.

It is the exploration of unintended consequences that has led me to the Philippines, a country on the path of an average of 20 tropical cyclones a year. I grip the armrests of my seat as my flight descends towards Tacloban City. We have caught the tail of tropical cyclone Trami and it is the bumpiest landing I have experienced in recent memory. It is perhaps fitting to commence fieldwork in the middle of a storm on a research project that is all about storms.

Despite having rich experience in routinely dealing with typhoons, the eastern city of Tacloban was unprepared for the unexpected force of historic storm Haiyan. On the 8th of November 2013, the super typhoon struck with 315 kph winds, washing out lives, property, and ecosystems. This prompted the government to invest heavily in infrastructure to buffer the coastal city against similarly intense storm systems.

Eleven years on, Tacloban City has restored mangrove forests (a type of nature-based or green infrastructure buffer) and is in the middle of constructing a 27-km long seawall (a type of grey infrastructure buffer) along its coastline. There is continuing debate among locals on the perceived effectiveness of both types of infrastructure in protecting communities. My investigations specifically focus on their impact on micro, small- and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs), where there is likewise significant debate.

While the seawall may be protecting some small businesses from the disruption and destruction of storms (for example, those trading close to the city’s bay), other small businesses are getting displaced (for example, micro and small fishing operators who have lost direct access to shorelines).

Mangrove restoration may preserve the livelihoods of some communities (for example, those dependent on harvesting edible molluscs and crustaceans found in mangrove gardens) but may result in land use conflicts and the displacement of other businesses located in areas targeted for reforestation.

It is critical to understand how climate buffer infrastructure solutions affect MSMEs. They are key economic enterprises that typically account for more than 90 percent of businesses, generate close to 70 percent of employment, and contribute around 40 percent of economic activity in developing Asian countries like the Philippines.

Given these considerable economic contributions, it is important to help manage the climate risk exposure and assure the resilience of this essential yet vulnerable sector. And as in the case of cane toads, it is crucial to gain insights into how climate buffer infrastructure solutions may lead to unintended consequences.

This research trip was supported with funding by SEI.

_References

_{Corporal-Lodangco, I. L., & Leslie, L. M. (2017). Climatology of Philippine tropical cyclone activity: 1945–2011. International Journal of Climatology. 37 (9), pp. 3525 - 3539. http://hdl.handle.net/10453/123743}

_{Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts (2010). The cane toad (Bufo marinus) - fact sheet. Commonwealth of Australia. https://www.dcceew.gov.au/environment/invasive-species/publications/factsheet-cane-toad-bufo-marinus#dcceew-main accessed 28 October 2024.}

_{Shinozaki, S., Miyakawa, D., and Arahan, R. (2024). Factors Affecting Micro, Small, and Medium-Sized Enterprise Development in Developing Asia: Findings from a Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis. ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 715. Asian Development Bank.}

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